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Random Thoughts


Watch for chatter of an Iraqi surrender to scare the shorts!


  • S&P 855 (former triple top breakout) should provide the first area or support.

  • I've got the one and only John B. Collier V sittin' beside me! Cowboy's of the world unite!

  • Words cannot express how excited I am to see Robert Hunter tonight. In honor of the show, all lyrics today will be Dead-ly.

  • Baby steps may not get you to your destination as quickly, but there's a much better chance that you'll arrive safely.

  • I've got the five day charts up in the NDX and S&P and i"ve drawn two trendlines. One starts yesterday around 11am and the other from the launch pad last Thursday.

  • Somebody walked into the crowd on yesterday's closing bell and bought 95,000 QQQ April 25 puts. In isolation, that doesn't help Boo's case.

  • What the heck is in a slippery nipple anyway?

  • I'm hearing that MO credit spreads are widening--I'm not involved and I haven't confirmed but it's worth a sniff.

  • Fokker is stepping up. Good to see.

  • Prevalent psychology has shifted to buying dips vs. selling rallies. That'll create near term support (self-fulfilling) but exacerbate the downside if and when.

  • Do I think expiration is adding to the volatility? Yes. Short gamma causes dealers to buy up and sell down.

  • ORCL reports tonight while FDX, GIS, ABS, BSC and LEN report tomorrow pre-opening. The big brokers all tell their tale Thursday morning and that'll help shape psychology.

  • France decides that they'll help us out if Saddam uses chemical weapons? Now I can sleep at night!

  • Minyanfest will take place this Sunday at the Q-lounge from 12-4. The address is 220 W 19th St. (between 7th/8th). I'm looking forward to drinking some wings, watching some beer and chowing some hoops. Also, make sure you check out the Minyanville Raffle--it's pretty sick.

  • The action in oil is mind boggling.

  • Market breadth is still negative--watch this gauge for a discernable turn (either way).

  • Gene Hackman was awesome in Young Frankenstein.

  • When you're trading out of sync, it's sometimes helpful to pull back and trade smaller until you reestablish a feel.

  • Last week was clearly "A" bottom--I don't believe it was "THE" bottom.

  • Picking tops can be as dangerous as picking bottoms--that's why it's important to always define your risk profile.

  • I'm gonna have John B. Collier V and Fokker arm wrestle for schnitz and giggles.

  • The tape acts firm (thus far). Does the S&P have to tickle through 870 before reversing?

  • Don't forget--Elmer Greenspan swings by Minyanville at 2:15!

  • I'm clean shaven today for the first time in six months.

  • It's been a long time since the "look through" trade was in vogue. In our assimilation of our metrics, this stresses the importance of psychology in the trading process.

  • NDX stochastics are firmly in the red zone and the SOX looks like it's in the process of "hooking" (negative). Meanwhile, the OSX (oil service index) has given a stochastic buy signal.

  • What would have happened if Edward Lewis picked up Kit DeLuca instead of Viv?

  • Why are insecure people the most vocal?

  • Will zero percent financing be the ultimate undoing of the autos?

  • Tony brought up a good point recently. With mutual fund cash reserves at historically low levels, who's gonna be the next buyer? The Europeans?

  • Patience typically brings price.

  • I wish I played ice hockey as a kid.

  • The sirens in NYC are nonstop and 24/7.

  • Iraq didn't cause the bear market--and it won't end it.

  • Wasabi!

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