Buzz Bits: Dow and Nasdaq End Mixed
Your daily Buzz & Banter highlights.
Housekeeping - Todd Harrison - 3:48 PM
Keeping ye faithful up--as I try to do and would do better if I had another pair of hands--here's what I'm thinking and doing and spewing and poohing:
I took my JP Morgan (JPM) trade. I love Jamie Dimon but it was a rental based on my morning eyes and trades are made to be taken.
I'm paring some of the earlier "diaper buys" in the interest of discipline. There is still overnight headline risk and the potential for forced selling. Hey, you know how I'm positioned--trading around a long bias--I'm just pointing out the other side of the trade. Again.
"A" low vs. "THE" low is an important context. It's a really important context. Big. "Huge," as Vivian Ward would say.
I'm all about my name and my word--a wise man taught me that--and I like to represent the 'Ville when I do that TV thang. But when Cody Willard charged me and tried to slap a Goodnight Irene on me when discussing the WWF on the beach Friday, I had no choice but to flip him--and flip him for real. They say that makes for good TV. I don't know about that... but it sure was alotta fun.
OK, I gotsta hop. I'll see yous in the ayem.
Back in the Saddle - Jeff Macke - 2:54 PM
Greetings from New York where I've got a pretty massive backlog of observations after a week on the beach. Let's just run with it, shall we?
"$2 a share". On the upside, it's double the amount that changed hands between the Dukes at the end of Trading Places. On the downside; it's two dollars a share.
- For what it's worth, I *still* wouldn't touch the financials. Not the XLF, not Citigroup (C) not even Goldman Sachs (GS) which is breaking the mid 150's support it had going into today.
- The market overall, however, seems like a trading buy. You can weep for the children for having an activist Fed but you have to respect the bid coming into this market, for a trade.
- Against that (slight) bullishness is this thought: Having seen this crisis coming isn't the same as knowing how long it's going to last, now that it's here. Being early and being wrong, however, are exactly the same thing in a tape this bouncy.
- What am I doing? I'm letting my Irish side ("You think this is bad? You should have seen the famine/ the blight/ the English etc et al") drive. In other works, I'm digging the price action and looking to add on real weakness, as opposed to down 40 point dips.
A Sign? - Jason Goepfert - 1:21 PM
I thought this headline that just popped up on the Bloomberg site was interesting: Goldman's Abby Cohen to Stop Making S&P 500 Forecasts After Bullish Calls
Why? Because it reminded me of something from October 9, 1998 (via the New York Times):
"Two influential American analysts adjusted their outlooks yesterday, further adding to the gloom. Abby Joseph Cohen, the investment analyst at Goldman, Sachs & Company who has been the market's most voluble cheerleader over the last three years, made comments about corporate earnings growth that to many listeners had a slightly negative tone.
If Ms. Cohen did not throw in the towel on her relentlessly optimistic forecast, she at least threw in a washcloth, cutting her estimates of 1998 and 1999 earnings for the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, implying that the current economic squeeze will extend well into next year."
October 8, 1998, was the day the market bottomed during the last financial-led scare. Just a not-so-amusing anecdote on this anxious day.
Taking more profits... - Bennet Sedacca - 1:31 PM
Fitch was out late Thursday citing the fact that National City Corp. (NCC), among others will have more charge-offs due to home equity loans.
My firm had been short the preferred and those have now crumbled from 25 to 10. We are now flat, but adding to Goldman Sachs (GS), JP Morgan (JPM) and General Electric (GE) shorts.
Something tells me that JPM likely still got a lot of garbage despite giving the Fed (which are controlled by the same folks anyway) $30 billion of nuclear waste. I think JPM spreads will likely blow out. Perhaps by a lot. I respect Mr. Dimon, but the company's balance sheet isn't exactly a box of chocolates either...
Position in GS, GE, JPM debt
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