I get so Emotional
Greetings from friendly Technology Hell, California. Wish you were here! Seriously... does anyone want to swap desks with me until I have my preferred waterfall of incoming information flowing into the new HQ I'm setting up for Kneel Before Macke LLC? One balky cable modem worth of information stream feels like taking a shower in a dripping sink.
Some thoughts and links of note, from what little information I'm able to see today...
- Phillip Swann of TVPredictions.com has some good insight on the TiVo deal with Comcast (CMCSK). Just for the "so you know" file, I sent Phillip a note giving him a deserved "attaboy!" along with a defense of David Farina. There are a whole big stacks of TiVo analysts past and present who deserve much more abuse.
- Speaking of which, the Comcast deal resulted in 5 upgrades and 5 downgrades, according to First Call. Most of the upgrades were to "Hold" (ala the Solly and FBR guys previously noted). The downgrades were in the "Yeah, but freestanding isn't great and what about DirecTV (DTV)?" camp.
- Apropos of nothing, this seems like a good place for a Lincoln quote: "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak up and remove all doubt."
- I miss running a hedge fund about as much as Buckner misses the Red Sox fans. Regardless, Succo and Reamer have me drooling over the pure adrenal joy of betting large, getting loud and seeing it payoff. That's a "really good" feeling when it's an overlooked common stock that you are long in a vanilla way. When you're whipping around vol. in big size after betting against "They can't be downgraded to junk... they're General Motors (GM)!" conventional wisdom.... oh man life is good.
- Reading about Succo peeling off a position he never "advised but shared the process" with feels roughly like being happily married and hearing of your single buddies' super-model/ super-freak dating stories. Big vicarious thrill and something that looks a little like "jealousy" but that's not exactly right because you wouldn't really want to change places but you love hearing the stories...
At least that's what I would imagine.
- If that seems like a rather "over passionate" way to view any work experience, let me remind you that I was short GM and Ford (F) through the life of my hedge fund. And I haven't been exactly shy about sharing my love of the darkside thesis. And I'm not short either F or GM while they plunge.
In that context, my reaction is subdued.
- Beatings happen to everyone. Todd-O and I have spent some IM time comparing my GM experience to him hating Fannie (FNM) during the entire 300 years the stock seemed to spend at $70 only to see it break with him uninvolved. In my opinion, the GM pain I'm suffering is much, much worse (making my manfully subdued reaction "hugely impressive" as Collins says). Regardless, empathy eases the pain.
Not busting his hump (if I were doing that I'd mention his obvious passion on the topic of who is going to pay so that the whole office can eat Fish)... I'm saying that the world is generally cruel and the markets are where the more angry smart types go to vent. You're going to take your lumps if you play at all so you might as well deal with it constructively and learn what you can from the beatings.
- Finally, loosely related to the topics of "beatings", Bloomberg.com's Dorin Levin has a solid piece on GM and F's race to bankruptcy. It's not good enough to fully reduce the tick-tocking of my rage in waiting for Dorin's employer's freaking tech people to get their freaking act together and...
... sorry... um... I'll stick with "Solid Piece".
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