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Random Thoughts


Will the performance anxiety last until the last bear covers?


  • The move is predicated on psychology and, as such, it's difficult to gauge the timing aspect of the potential turn.

  • While I've surely been too cautious the last few days, I continue to believe that we've yet to see the lows. Yes, we've discussed the SHAM potential (stiff lift) since the SHIM occurred--but I don't sense that this is it.

  • Syracuse played like a collection of individuals rather than a team and that's why they lost Friday's semifinal to UCONN. Whenever they've won the Big East, though, they've fared poorly in the tournament and I think losing may have been a good wake up call.

  • Is today a Thursday redeux or will the fresh memory of Thursday trap bulls into that thinking?

  • Emotion is the enemy when trading.

  • I've said it before and I'll say it again, nobody can outthink the Minx on a consistent basis. With that said, I continue to scan my universe for defined risk April plays and will define any overnight risk. I don't trust 'em--but I know enough to know that I've been wrong before and will (at times) be wrong again.

  • While I was at the game Friday, I opened a packet of ketchup and sprayed the white, silk shirt of the guy in front of me. He didn't notice at first but I did the "stand up" thing and took responsibility for my slip. He was cool about it and, as a gesture, I bought him and his friends beers for the rest of the night.

  • Outside of manicuring my risk profile, I've generally done a bit less today. I've always found that when my vision gets cloudy, stepping back a bit (until I regain my mojo) helps.

  • Is the Iraq conflict setting up as "buy the rumor, sell the news?"

  • Prayers to our soldiers and the innocent civilians scattered throughout the world.

  • Happy birthday to Mitch at Bloomberg!

  • I am surprised at the strength of the U.S dollar in the face of U.N/U.S discord.

  • Minyanville is an educational community. It was before this rally and it remains so after this rally.

  • Robert Hunter tomorrow night at the Town Hall Theater. Good music is good for the soul.

  • If the best fades are the toughest fade, we're likely getting close.

  • The breadth, dollar, oil and equity tells (thus far) continue to point higher.

  • Why do I get the sense that when it's time to sell, bids will be very light?

  • The bulls are getting louder as we rally and the bears were most vocal when we were at the lows. I've always felt that thinking was counterintuitive.

  • S&P 870.
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