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Fearsome Follies

By

If we can push through S&P 855, S&P 870 is the ultimate line in the sand!

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The upside momentum continues to squeeze the shorts and, in the process, fresh money is being sucked into the market. As portfolio managers cast an eye towards the looming quarter end, the fear of missing has clearly overwhelmed the fear of losing--and the chase is on. Where will it end? That, my friends, is the trillion dollar question on everybody's lips. Come take a walk with me as we talk our way through it.

I remain of the most humble opinion that this rally is NOT sustainable but timing, as we know, is everything. While I harbor these fears and nibble on out of the money puts, the tape continues to dance along, thank you very much. The dollar is getting stronger, treasuries are getting pummeled, gold has given back most of it's gains and the internals are strong as bull. What's a Minyan to do?

I said this morning that I'd rethink our posture at NDX 1050 and S&P 855 and we're now there. My dilemma continues to be predicated on the timing aspect and that's what I'm trying to wrap my arms around. The S&P triggered a triple top buy signal, the BKX broke the down trendline, the SOX has emerged as a leadership group. Those are the positives.

On the other side of the ledger, this feels like we're in the midst of a buying crescendo and I'm not certain I remember a time when there's been more hope imbedded in the tape. Further, there remains discord in the international community and while that may not matter now, it's a potentially troublesome development.

My hat reads trader--not investor--and my goal isn't to establish a view and defend it. I will, however, always be forthright in my assessment of the market and offer my honest read to my fellow Minyans. Out of respect for the technical signals, I have talked myself out of adding an arm into my metaphorical bear costume. Still, I want to keep both legs in the fur for now as we edge through the muck. There are too many bulls for my liking, my risk is defined and I'm comfortable with my posture. I believe there will be lower levels to buy if, in fact, Hoofy wants to accumulate risk.

If you've got five minutes during your lunch crunch, please visit the Ruby Peck Library for details on our kick ass raffle. We wanted to do something that all Minyans could participate in and, as such, we decided against an auction. We'll pick the winner at Sunday's Minyanfest so, as the week progresses, we'd love it if you could help us spread the good word.

I've gotta hop, my friends--I sincerely hope you'll all faring well.

position in qqq, spy

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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