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Fearsome Follies


If we can push through S&P 855, S&P 870 is the ultimate line in the sand!


The upside momentum continues to squeeze the shorts and, in the process, fresh money is being sucked into the market. As portfolio managers cast an eye towards the looming quarter end, the fear of missing has clearly overwhelmed the fear of losing--and the chase is on. Where will it end? That, my friends, is the trillion dollar question on everybody's lips. Come take a walk with me as we talk our way through it.

I remain of the most humble opinion that this rally is NOT sustainable but timing, as we know, is everything. While I harbor these fears and nibble on out of the money puts, the tape continues to dance along, thank you very much. The dollar is getting stronger, treasuries are getting pummeled, gold has given back most of it's gains and the internals are strong as bull. What's a Minyan to do?

I said this morning that I'd rethink our posture at NDX 1050 and S&P 855 and we're now there. My dilemma continues to be predicated on the timing aspect and that's what I'm trying to wrap my arms around. The S&P triggered a triple top buy signal, the BKX broke the down trendline, the SOX has emerged as a leadership group. Those are the positives.

On the other side of the ledger, this feels like we're in the midst of a buying crescendo and I'm not certain I remember a time when there's been more hope imbedded in the tape. Further, there remains discord in the international community and while that may not matter now, it's a potentially troublesome development.

My hat reads trader--not investor--and my goal isn't to establish a view and defend it. I will, however, always be forthright in my assessment of the market and offer my honest read to my fellow Minyans. Out of respect for the technical signals, I have talked myself out of adding an arm into my metaphorical bear costume. Still, I want to keep both legs in the fur for now as we edge through the muck. There are too many bulls for my liking, my risk is defined and I'm comfortable with my posture. I believe there will be lower levels to buy if, in fact, Hoofy wants to accumulate risk.

If you've got five minutes during your lunch crunch, please visit the Ruby Peck Library for details on our kick ass raffle. We wanted to do something that all Minyans could participate in and, as such, we decided against an auction. We'll pick the winner at Sunday's Minyanfest so, as the week progresses, we'd love it if you could help us spread the good word.

I've gotta hop, my friends--I sincerely hope you'll all faring well.

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