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Sharp as a Marble


That's what I'M talking about!


The diplomatic window has officially closed and traders have lined up for the widely anticipated war rally. Perception is reality on Wall Street and, as we discussed, if enough people believe the train is leaving the station, they'll likely hop the turnstiles to get on board. As you know, I'm not as optimistic as some of my trading brethren but I respect the powerful fear (of missing).

The action (thus far) is whippy, thin and fast. Reactive traders are following the tape higher as conventional wisdom swirls around the notion that a war--with or without the U.N--will yield clarity. The tenor of the tape certainly seems to reflect that view and almost every tangible tell is pointing north. The semis surged from the get go, the banks reversed higher, the dollar has caught a bid, treasuries have come under pressure and the internals are firmly positive.

I've been eyeing S&P 855 and NDX 1055 as upside levels and the techs have already gotten through there. I'm attempting to remove emotion from my process and use price to my advantage but this feeding frenzy is vicious as the buyers chase performance. I've nibbled on some defined risk April downsides but I'm admittedly trading smaller than usual and keeping my right hand up. It's important to listen to the market but we must also appreciate the potential for her to change moods on a dime.

In Minyanville news, the raffle email is now up and running so if you'd like to participate in our fantastic charity raffle, please contact While we're all stressed and frazzled by the events in the world, it's important to remember the children and do our part for charity. Besides, one lucky Minyan is gonna walk away from Oscar night a very happy camper.

I'll be back.

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