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Random Thoughts


Watch the greenback...

  • Dollar Squalor? The greenback (-55 bips) has broken the 50-day, 200-day and previous March lows in one swell foop.

  • Breadth? NYSE internals are still snazzy at 2:1 (skewed, in part, by the fixed income jig).

  • Sweet Melissa! President Fish, the Thomson Dan's and I will be shaking some bones at tonight's Allman Brother's gig.

  • If we keep raising the debt ceiling, is that considered real estate growth?

  • The Matador Crowd will now lean against S&P 1300 as a bovine back stop. Why? The triple nipple, evolving acne (see the Russell, TRAN, BKX) and the simple fact that past resistance is future support.

  • Oxycute me? Big pharma is eyeing acne of its own at DRG 335.

  • The XAU has thus far failed directly at the February lows (134).

  • As we ready for the madness of March, let's not forget that we've got kids overseas with much bigger issues on their plate. Particularly as the U.S launches its largest Iraqi air assault since 2003.

  • A few Minyans have asked if this latest pop is expiration related (lotsa negative gamma) and if some Debbie Downers await next week (when March paper comes off). It's quite possible, friends--Jeff Saut has touched on this potential--and there's large open interest at S&P 1300, 1325 and QQQQ 42 and that may be drawing the crawl higher.

  • So why did I undress? The trading try was predicated on defined risk. Rationalizing that level once it arrives removes the very parameters that made the trade attractive in the first place. Will I put corks on my forks if we start singing Southbound? Maybe, but the mechanics of the swing trump the results of the at-bat and that discipline has saved me through the years.

  • The 2006 Minyanville Holiday party is hereby cancelled.

  • I don't consider myself a conspiracist--a dynamic I touched on in a column called Succofest--but I certainly like kicking the tires of conventional wisdom. I offered, in that column, that I wasn't sure if Di was an accident. Evidently, and according to People Magazine, others are asking that very same question.

  • Minyans. Mountains. August 10-13. Be very excited.

  • Good luck to all ye faithful who took part in the Minyanville March Madness Tournament. Our goal is to have some fun and help some kids. That, my friends, is nothing but net.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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