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Random Thoughts


The onus is on us to filter the noise and keep our poise. And if nothing else, there's a whole heckuva lotta noise out there.

  • As discussed on yesterday's Buzz, I undressed from my metaphorical bear costume into yesterday's close and balanced my book. There's no looking back--I learned a long time ago that complaining about making money is a recipe for mojo reversal.

  • Boo, who's been waiting in vain for this crimson pain, was understandably miffed, taunting me all night by saying "Hey Toddo, they have pills for premature evacuation!" He also noted that the BKX and XBD both broke their 200-days and, well, as go the financials...

  • We've been watching the March lows, offering that if they don't hold (S&P 1375), the 200-day (S&P 1350) seems like a beacon in the fright. And so it is.

  • Speaking of pulling out, Herbie the Love Bug (HRB) caught an overnight virus as the sub-prime woes trickled into the name. This is a name we talked about on the Buzz and at the Houston TD-Ameritrade APEX live event in January. Indeed, there is a fine line between patience and discipline.

  • Hoofy, ever the optimist, is quick to note the lift in Accredited Home (LEND) this morning. "This was the pin prick," he offered, "so don't be shocked by a relief rally.

  • I started my trainer this morning at 6:00 AM (no, she didn't blow me off this time). Funny thing though, she kept telling me to hold my belly button in as I did my exercises. I told her "I AM holding it in--that's just what my belly button looks like!"

  • As chatter circulated yesterday that the Senate is weighing aid to 2.2 million sub-prime borrowers, traders began to extrapolate a potential rate cut. Heck, some were saying that it could arrive as early as next week's FOMC meeting. We've talked about the conditioned knee jerk response that "rate cuts are good" and that they immediately will help stocks. We've also implored Minyans to ask "why" rather than blindly bet that it'll be a positive catalyst.

  • I remember when Minyan Doug Kass first joined, when I was writing the trading diary. The tape was whippy, trippy and pretty skippy as we digested the bubble and the residual elements. He and I bantered on this topic incessantly and, while we disagreed at the time, it forged a longstanding friendship. Rate cuts aren't an immediate bovine catalyst anymore than rate hikes are an immediate reason to see. Shake that reactive logic from your keppe before the chatter gets louder. The onus is on us to filter the noise and keep our poise. And if nothing else, there's a whole heckuva lotta noise out there.

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know...

    • Where was all the sub-prime legislation when the problem was manifesting?

    • Do I really have to fill out brackets? (Yes!)

    • Does your net worth define your self-worth?

    • Does anybody really know what time it is? Does anybody care?

    • Are you staring at one stock all day?

    • Isn't that the tell-tale sign that you're too big in it?

    • Has anyone ever seen Angelo Mozilo and The Thing in the same room at the same time?

    • Is that mean? (If so, please know that it was Pepe.)

    • How many NZ and Aussie Minyans are gonna send Vegemite to MVHQ?

    • Come on now, isn't this better than a zero volatility environment?

    • Don't corrections have to feel like something worse for them to be true corrections?

    • Why didn't True Lies get the snaps it deserved?

    • Hey President Fish, do we really have a 2:30 out-of-office mind meld?

    • What's for lunch?

  • We've been keeping close tabs on Google in the 'Ville for the past month or so for a few reasons. First, there's a technical chasm, a gap that would make Michael Strahan blush. That'll "fill" around $430. Second, President Fish, who's about as good as it gets when it comes to digital media, offered a while back that Google has a bullseye on its back and big media was gonna come for them en masse. That's seemingly started and given the Sumner season, there's likely more schvitz to come in this heat wave. I don't know where the next finski is in the stock but there are certainly less convoluted trades out there.

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey finds a drop in bullish sentiment to 45.5% from 46.2% last week and an increase in bearish sentiment to 28.9% from 26.9% prior. Those expecting a correction fell to 25.6% from 26.9%.

  • Go Chargers? We just saw a customer buy 20,000 Qualcomm July 50 calls for a buck this morning. There is no word yet if it's LaDainian Tomlinson.

  • I'm very late to this party but I'm just now starting to appreciate the brilliance of Aerosmith. And it has nothing to do with this morning's ride in the elevator.

  • Goldenstar is trading a bit funky on the back of earnings and while I wanted to buy this into the $4 level, I'm gonna give it a bit of room as a function of the crossing (at the top) stochastics. Just keepin' ya up and me still love it long-term.

  • Don't forget to fill out your Minyan March Madness brackets! It'll help alotta kids and that, my friends, is always a good trade.

  • In a housekeeping item, I've gotta chaperone Hoofy and Boo to the left coast Monday and Tuesday as they ready themselves for the Hollywood Walk of Fame. I noodled the notion of letting them fly solo but Boo has a tendency to act up on long flights and Hoofy has a milk dependency issue. Besides, they've been waiting for this juncture for a mighty long time and I wanna be there when they light it up! After all, we support our own in the 'Ville!

  • Good luck out there, Minyans, and stay true.
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position in gss, financials
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