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Random Thoughts

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This is my kinda tape!

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  • While I admit feeling a bit of angst after Syracuse let a 21 point lead dwindle to five against a tough UCONN squad, I am miffed that the Orange got a #4 seed while the Huskies took a #2. I'm hopeful that the boyz use it as motivation as they embark on a tough road to St. Louie.

  • Did anyone notice that the Sunday New York Times Business section was awash in stories about Enron, WorldCom and El Paso Corp? My sense is that we'll see a LOT more of that when the markets trade lower and investors are reminded that risk is a two-sided equation.

  • The OSX, after creepin' and peepin', has just flipped the upside switch.

  • "Financial services represent more than 22% of the S&P 500 on a cap weighted basis. Since there's been no net relative progress since the summer of 2002, we feel confident saying that the sector is going through a topping or distributive phase. This belies our vociferous claim made across the land that the financials are "cheap." This claim might be so, but it's our take that financials will get cheaper." Uber-Minyan John Roque.

  • The dollar is testing resistance at DXY 82 just as the XAU is probing support at XAU 100.

  • The HHH (internet index) just triggered a "kiss of death" (50-day crossing through the 200-day to the downside).

  • My sense is that we see some downside probage today and the longer it takes to arrive, the more likely it is to stick.

  • If you would like to participate in the Minyan March Madness Brackets, please click here. The password is "minyans" and those who don't win will have the option (but not the obligation) to make a donation of their choice to the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education.

  • Snaps to Minyan Herb Greenberg of MarketWatch for being in the AutoZone (AZO) zone.

  • Still pissed about hockey, eh?

  • "A country that is now aspiring to an 'ownership society' will not find happiness in-and I'll use hyperbole here for emphasis-a 'sharecroppers society." Warren Buffett, in his annual report, on the danger of Americans becoming overly indebted to foreigners.

  • I said a boom boom boom, lemme hear ya say heyo, HEYO!

  • Call me a tree hugger but I was disgusted by how they treated the animals when I took my niece and nephew to the circus yesterday. As we were leaving the arena, Hoofy turned to me and said "I'd like to see that guy put his head inside of MY mouth!"

  • Anecdotal evidence that the Minyanville Schnitzel-our foray into branded currency-could actually find some legs!

  • DeVibe from Lehman's aptly named chartist Jeff DeGraaf: "With NASDAQ's failure to break out and the SPX's violation of the (acne) pivot point, the bull trap scenario may be playing out. However, trends remain bullish and will not deteriorate until 1164, implying more distribution is likely to emerge before sustainable deterioration is likely (i.e. more grind)."

  • Note the action in Google (GOOG) since it broke support at $181.

  • "We have talked about the corner the Fed and Japan are painting themselves into. With central banks coordinating purchases of treasuries, they have driven interest rates artificially lower to "reflate" asset prices. But this has led to much higher commodity prices (can anyone say inflation?) and debt, while economic growth outside the U.S. is anemic (can anyone say stagflation?). Now the dollar cannot seem to rally even with higher short term rates and higher U.S. growth. There are rumors among FX traders that the Fed (forced by the market) will have to raise short term rates more than expected. Stay tuned." John Succo on today's Buzz.

  • Uncle Buck must be psyched!


    R.P.
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