May peace be with you!
Goin home, goin home
By the waterside I will rest my bones
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul
Well Minyans, it's getting close to that time. Another freaky week is winding down and the Minx has once again succeeded in traveling the path of maximum frustration. I've been scanning my charts and, as I got to the weekly S&P, I wondered if it's a coincidence that the graph resembles a huge smiley face? It's been nutty, that's fer sure, but we've gotta suck it up and remain lucid as we craft our weekend risk profile.
With fifteen minutes left in the trading day, I've gotta admit that I'm impressed with action. We can debate the legitimacy or sustainability of the buyers but, at the end of the day, the bulls held their ground and defended their turf. The bears will argue that they rebuffed the bovine's emotional morning spurt but they were unable to dent the downside with any effectiveness. As I write, I'm seeing hedgies cover up so they can walk taller (less short) into the weekend.
The geopolitical landscape will surely shift as the political process evolves and we edge towards "clarity" . The perception of war avoidance and/or quick victory is figuratively (and literally) a double edged sword and I'm attempting to wrap my arms around conventional wisdom. I remain of the (humble) opinion that U.N/U.S unity is a HUGE issue from a market standpoint and if (big IF) we can't find a common ground, I "'think" the dollar gets waxed and equities follow. If, on the other hand, we turn to the same page, the performance anxiety will likely spur another leg higher.
As a function of my big picture beliefs, the fragility of the current "bottom," and the lack of quacking in the intermediate indicators, I'm going to sit tight with both legs in my metaphorical bear costume and DEFINED downside risk on my sheets. Boo was very careful not to press when the S&P was probing 790 and 40 points (and two days) later, nothing has changed except prices and sentiment. Many of the screaming meemies on Wednesday have grown horns and hoofs and the bear camp in no longer as in vogue as it was. That may not be indicative in and of itself but it was likely necessary IF the long is to roll over.
With that said, emotions are high and we're far from a disconnect either way. While I'm leaving some April puts on, I'm conscious that there is tangible upside risk. In my mind's eye, I'm using NDX 1055 and S&P 855 as lines in the proverbial sand but, gun to head, yesterday's rally was textbook bear market spike material. Again, my biggest issue is one of timing and that remains the most elusive element of profitable trading.
I'm gonna power down so I can get this to you before the close. This is a brutal market and it has the ability to suck the mojo out of you if you let it. Don't fall prey to the pitfalls of the minxy emotional variance by letting your P&L dictate your happiness. Enjoy the weekend--it's why we work--and use the downtime to refresh, refocus and rejuvenate. After all, tomorrow is promised to nobody.
Have a peaceful weekend.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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