I'm a humble bear--but note the reversal in the banks!
You'll remember me when the west wind moves
Upon the fields of barley
You'll forget the sun in his jealous sky
As we walk through fields of gold
The early afternoon session continues to edge along and it feels as if traders are fried after a long five sessions. There's more than a little irony involved in the fact that, as of now, the S&P is basically flat for the week and you can almost hear Sammy giggling in the background. My, what a Minxy web we weave. No giggling!
I was walking through some of the macro indicators and I stumbled upon a six month chart of gold.com. Minyans will remember that we discussed the risk to this commodity when it was busting through $370 and everyone was tripping over themselves to get long. Six weeks (and $45) later, the precious metal is sitting directly on it's uptrend line from October. I've admittedly got my hands full with the equity market but I wanted to point this out to the gold bugs among you. If it's gonna hold it's trend, it's gotta make a stand shortly.
Continuing on the macro path, the greenback has been in the news lately as it's strength has been widely discussed. It's interesting to note that it's trendline (vs. the Euro) comes into play around 1.05 and that level (if and when) bears watching. Again, I'm far from a currency trader but if the George Washington is gonna bump his keppe up against resistance, that's an obvious level to watch.
Turning our attention back to stocks, the semis are one of the few standouts today as they're giving back some of yesterday's rippage. Other than that, there's not much happening (thus far) as we prepare for contra hour. If (big if) the averages can manage a plus/minus day, that has to be construed as a bullish showing. Still, and at the risk of receiving an equity enema. I'm operating with two legs in my bear costume, defined risk on my sheets and more than one wrinkle in my forehead.
I've been very careful to monitor myself for signs of emotion and I believe my stylistic approach is an accurate extension of my view. Yes, Minyans, it's entirely possible that this rally has further legs (before it rolls over)---I'm simply attempting to use prices as an advantage. We added our second appendage around here yesterday and, as it stands, I'm comfortable with my posture. A tad nervous, mind you, but comfortable.
This is real-time educational commentary and--shocker!--there will be times when I'm off with my assessment. It's pointless (and silly) to sweep errors under the rug and pretend they never occurred. That's the difference between mistakes and lessons, my friends, and if we don't learn from the past, we're destined to repeat it. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong--always honest.
Tick tock, baby, tick tock. There's less than two hours left in the week and I'm anxiously awaiting tonight's Syracuse game at the garden with Mr. Wassong. I've made an executive decision and decided that I will, in fact, join my college roommate in sipping some cold brews as we watch the big game. I mean honestly--it's March Madness!
Hit 'em hard, baby, and let's end this week with some jingle in our jeans.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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