It's been a long time since I've had performance anxiety, right Daisy?
Where are you going now my love?
Where will you be tomorrow?
Will you bring me happiness?
Will you bring me sorrow?
(Crosby Stills Nash & Young)
Alright Minyans, we got our first fade (read:sale) from S&P 840 and our second fade (read:buy) near S&P 830. Now, the fun and games really begin! I continue to peer through the pile of follicles on my desk as I attempt to assign a method to the madness and while it's certainly tricky, I'll give it my best shot. Hmm...speaking of shots, has it been a month yet?
Is today deja vu all over again? Crude certainly is doing it's part but there are tangible differences elsewhere. Treasuries are (thus far) hanging tough, the dollar is relatively flat, gold is higher and the financials are struggling at resistance (BKX 700 and XBD 360). The breadth, meanwhile, is covering more ground than Mickey Rivers in his prime! It flipped from 3:2 negative to 2:1 positive to flat to 4:3 positive again. I haven't seen tea leaves this trippy since Derek, Matilda and I partied with Hansel!
In four-letter land, the SOX migrated up towards the 200-day moving average (318) and it hasn't touched that line since May of '02. It's just another "level" to watch as we find our way but I wanted to toss it on the trading radar regardless. I've seen two-sided flow today but the short covering theme continues in earnest. I don't mean to beat a dead bear, my friends, but absent a global group hug, this raises an eyebrow. My biggest issue--and it's huge--is one of timing.
I'd like to throw one more potential "thing" out there. With quarter-end creeping up and performance anxiety clearly piqued, we must conscious of the potential for emotions to play an even greater role in the price action. This obviously has two-sided implications but, regardless, I wanted to make sure it was discussed.
First things first, the S&P and NDX both put in a higher intraday low and lower intraday highs. Once this pattern is resolved (either way), it'll offer active traders another "tell." Are we having fun yet?
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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