I'm in the mood for love!
Well, my friends, in the immortal words of Ed Coury, sometimes you're gonna be the windshield and sometimes you're gonna be the bug. It stands to reason that the dog day afternoon is filled with fleas and I'm just about ready to get some bug spray. You're not a bug, are you gnat? Wait a minute--bug..gnat...are there some similarities here?
Alright, this is the dilemma for the traders in our midst. The bulls pretty cleaned Boo's clock in every possible way. The dollar surged mightily, the bonds got hammered, gold melted, crude spilled, breadth was better than 2:1 positive, the semis, banks, transports and cyclicals all rallied smartly and psychology pendulum seemingly swung hard to the right. What's not to like?
I've discussed my big picture concerns for some time but, from a trading perspective, we've attempted to keep an open mind. With that said, the bear market has been littered with empty rallies and broken promises and every spike (to resistance) has been followed by a new low. Is this time different? Perhaps--I'm humble enough to know that I'll be wrong at times. However, it remains my humble opinion that the October lows will be violated before THE rally occurs. My issue is simply one of timing.
Shockingly, the bulls are getting loud again and proclaiming the worst to be over. I will remind them (and you) that one day does not a bull market make and there are some unresolved issues with our trading metrics. Bear market rallies serve to embolden the bovine and this time is certainly no exception. I'm not a bitter critter--I simply want to add a dose of perspective (and reality) to the mix.
I'm gonna power down with two legs in my metaphorical bear costume and my overnight risk defined. It wasn't the most spectacular showing by this critters today but you'll never see me sugar coat or hide from my fellow Minyans. We don't celebrate when we nail 'em and, by extension, we can't be too hard on ourselves when we miss a move. It's all part of the balancing act, my friends, and I'll remind you that our goal is one of consistency.
Have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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