Where's the love?
"There's enough pressure in the game that you need to have some fun. You need to get away from it. You need to enjoy yourself. I went though a tough time as a player because I took the game home with me. It never went away. You need time just to do what you do to relax."
--New York Yankee's Manager Joe Torre
The afternoon Minx continues to slink as the volume dries up and the critters all think. The thousand pound elephant sitting in the middle of the room is whether traders will wanna lug exposure into the weekend. It's been a long time since fear (of any kind) has been a tangible factor and that element of uncertainty is being reflected in the choppy slop.
I opined on the Buzz that I sense there could be "relative" lethargy into the bell but a peaceful easy weekend will prolly usher in a Monday gap (higher). That thought process is making the rounds and, as such, proactive types are trying to fade the fade before the fade. Confused? You're not alone, my friends, as we're in a de-facto twilight zone between what is and what could be.
On the bullish side of the ledger, we are (were?) fairly oversold and fear, as measured by the VXO, popped 50% since the Monday dance with S&P 1160. That, coupled with LOUD chatter of historic TRIN readings (I'm not a subscriber) and a conditioned dip shtick, is Hoofy's halo as we heave ahead. From Boo's standpoint, rallies are a gift as there has been massive technical destruction. Oversold bounces are fine, he'll opine, but the trend has clearly changed.
A friend just asked me what I thought and I walked through the above reasoning. When he screamed "hedger," I offered that when there are such broad crosscurrents, it's difficult to pin down a couple of hours. Moreover, there are seismic shifts in global perception and regardless of which way the wind blows, a dose of discipline is an important common denominator. Define your horizon and identify a comfortable risk profile. And remember, Minyans, you always want to allow for a margin of error in your approach.
Next week will usher in a handful of earnings, a bevy of Beeks and a shot of Elmer for good measure. More likely than not, however, what doesn't happen will be as important as what does. Be careful of trading purely on this "catalyst" as the metric assimilation is much more involved. If there's anything we've learned from experience, it's not to focus singularly when the market reacts collectively.
So that's where we stand as we edge towards the bell and it's so quiet, I can hear a stomach growl. I sincerely hope you're all having a good day and--even if you're not--you can turn it off when the bell tolls and focus on the important stuff. Tomorrow is promised to nobody, my friends, so make the most of today and share it with someone you love. Corny? Maybe...but give it a try.
Good luck into the bell.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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