Oil of Oy Vey!
By Todd Harrison Mar 12, 2003 11:10 am
If there wasn't risk, it'd be called winning--not trading.
There's a message in the wild
And I'm sending you this signal tonight
You don't know how desperate I've become
And it looks like I'm losing my mind
Alright Minyans, this is where I need you to stay tip top, schnitz hot and second to none (sir). The Minx is starting to make things interesting. The VIX is tickling 40 (not a disconnect yet but a step in the right direction), the banks are melty (BKX 650 is first support, then low 600's) and Europe is nastola (DAX down another 4%). Steely nerves, please--this promises to be a long and windy day.
I continue to hear about traders wanting to position themselves for the inevitable rally and while anything's possible, I find it curious that more people aren't concerned about the downside. Aside from the whippage before the opening and some isolated index puts, I've seem few signs of fear. That doesn't mean we can't rally, mind you, but I'm just not sure that we'll see THE rally until hope is viewed as absurdly silly.
The chatter that the U.S is close to securing the necessary votes for the Security Counsel resolution is lingering in the background buzz. Again, I think unity is uber-important to the near-term market psychology and, according to news reports, we're closer today than we were yesterday. That's something to monitor--it may not be today's business but it remains a focus in my mind's eye.
The Nazz continues its relative outpeformance and while I respect the action, I can't shake the feeling that it's got more downside relative to the S&P. That's not a recommendation--Minyanville is an educational community and we don't offer advice here--but I'm skewing my stylistic approach such that I look to N's for shorts and S's for longs (if and when).
I continue to hop around with one leg in my metaphorical bear costume and I'm keeping a tight S&P 805 stop. Could we see Snapper today? We could see ANYTHING today! Watch those banks for signs of traction/slippage, monitor the breadth for confirmation, understand that the dollar DOES matter and note the transports---they're driving south on the turnpike.
Hey Fokker, get over here and clean these hair follicles off my desk--they're everywhere! While you're here, lemme know how many Minyans have RSVP'd for the March Madness Minyanfest in NYC on the 23rd. We're securing the space and we wanna make sure that there's plenty of room to drink wings, eat some hoops and watch beer.
Hit 'em hard.
position in qqq
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