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Humble Minyans

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The three B's--banks, brokers, breadth--are a bummer, dude.

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So you're a little bit older and a lot less bolder
Than you used to be
So you used to shake 'em down
But now you stop and think about your dignity


(Bob Seger)

I've gotta tell ya--I've traded a lot of markets and I'm not sure I've ever seen a tape this tricky. The opening surge was met with supply as the financials, once again, took it on the chin. The BKX is now down almost 9% since last Monday and that's been the biggest drag on the tape. Watch this complex closely, my friends, as it remains the single most important area of the market.

I continue to see some European selling and while I can't comment on the nature of it's origin (because I don't know), I wanted to pass it along. I don't trade purely off the flow--I hate "playing" catalysts I can't see--but it certainly factors into my thought process. For instance, last week we saw size call buying and we viewed it as a contrarian signal. I don't necessarily interpret this latest input with the same zaggyiness, mind you, because the former was speculative while the later is real supply. See the subtle difference?

The breadth is has firmly shifted to the negative (2:1) and the angst levels are upticking in kind. The Boo shoe this morning was dicey, I know, but we defined the parameters of our risk profile before we initiated the trade. It's a tenuous juncture for the market (aren't they all?) but I can't shake the notion that we've gotta shake the tree a bit before a sustainable lift occurs. Regardless, and out of respect for the Minx, I'm going to tighten my stop and lower it to S&P 805.

Keep a close listen to the U.N developements--if the psychology begins to pick up a hint of accord within the Security Counsel, that could buoy sentiment in the near term.

I hope this finds you well.
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