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Humble Minyans

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The three B's--banks, brokers, breadth--are a bummer, dude.

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So you're a little bit older and a lot less bolder
Than you used to be
So you used to shake 'em down
But now you stop and think about your dignity


(Bob Seger)

I've gotta tell ya--I've traded a lot of markets and I'm not sure I've ever seen a tape this tricky. The opening surge was met with supply as the financials, once again, took it on the chin. The BKX is now down almost 9% since last Monday and that's been the biggest drag on the tape. Watch this complex closely, my friends, as it remains the single most important area of the market.

I continue to see some European selling and while I can't comment on the nature of it's origin (because I don't know), I wanted to pass it along. I don't trade purely off the flow--I hate "playing" catalysts I can't see--but it certainly factors into my thought process. For instance, last week we saw size call buying and we viewed it as a contrarian signal. I don't necessarily interpret this latest input with the same zaggyiness, mind you, because the former was speculative while the later is real supply. See the subtle difference?

The breadth is has firmly shifted to the negative (2:1) and the angst levels are upticking in kind. The Boo shoe this morning was dicey, I know, but we defined the parameters of our risk profile before we initiated the trade. It's a tenuous juncture for the market (aren't they all?) but I can't shake the notion that we've gotta shake the tree a bit before a sustainable lift occurs. Regardless, and out of respect for the Minx, I'm going to tighten my stop and lower it to S&P 805.

Keep a close listen to the U.N developements--if the psychology begins to pick up a hint of accord within the Security Counsel, that could buoy sentiment in the near term.

I hope this finds you well.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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