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Simon Sez


Prayers of peace around the world.


Well I sang it once and I sang it twice
I'm going to sing it three times more
Going to stay 'til your resistance
Is overcome

(Paul Simon)

The afternoon action has lost some traction and the bulls can't get no satisfaction. Snapper looked like he wanted to try and get his groove but a combination of uber-resistance (S&P 1125), non-confirming internals and terror concerns quelled the swell. Now, as we edge through the rest of the Thursday test, the critters have a few decisions to make.

Is the tape basing near the NASDAQ autumn congestion zone or churning under S&P support? Answer that question, my friends, and your game plan will all but be solved. I continue to feel that the technical breaks have cracked the foundation and that should weigh on the tape and (eventually) seep into the collective mindset. Remember, the dip shtick has been good and thick for 365 days and profitable habits are hard to break.

Elmer's glue has been the banks and that (along with the levels and breadth) are my main trading tells. The piggies are finally starting to show some signs of lethargy--not that we can blame them--but they told the tale on the way up and they'll wag the tail if they fail. Of course, with all the macro currents in place right now, stocks may revert to trading as a monolithic entity (much like they did during the duct-tape days).

Oracle (ORCL:NASD) will paint the tape after the close and that "could" color some tech-books tomorrow. Further, the talented Mr. Beeks will release business inventories (exp. .3%), the current account balance (exp. $136,000,000,000), the Wolverine confidence number (exp. 94.5) before Friday's opening bell. There is, of course, the potential that the BLS will release the (cough) PPI one of these days but if we held our breath, we'd be blue as a screw.

I'm gonna hop as it just got nutty in a hurry. Al-Queda has claimed responsibility for the Spain bombings and that has introduced a long forgotten (and very disturbing) element (to both trading and society). I will say this, my friends, whatever your P&L is today--good or bad--it should be kept in perspective. All too often, it takes something bad to make you realize you've got it good. And if you're reading this column, you've got it better than most.

Have a peaceful night.

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