Freaky Friday Random Thoughts
Let's end this week with some jingle in our jeans!
- I described the Minx as tri-polar yesterday and I think it's a particularly apt analogy. We've got bovine to the left, ursine to the right and conditioned complacency in the middle eating at both sides of the pie.
- The metals are under early pressure but, with the XAU off 22% from the late January highs, I'm officially in shopping market mode. I may be earlier--and I'm a scaler, not a taker--but this is precisely why I broke from my long-term holder mode and circled these to circle back.
- Beeks stopped by to tell us that we added more jobs this month while last month was revised lower. The unemployment rate came in slightly higher than expected (4.8% vs. 4.7%). Does this matter? Well, perhaps...although I'll humbly offer that 1) the market is a leading indicator (economic figures are coincident and real estate lags) and 2) I've lost a measure of faith that the BLS calculates a correct assessment of our union. I mean, would you believe an organization the preaches "no inflation" while energy, healthcare and education costs continue to squeeze the consumer.
- Orange you glad it's March Madness?
- Past support is future resistance, we know, which is why we were eyeing CRB 320 like a hawk yesterday. The commodity proxy broke the 200-day support and multiyear trendline earlier in the week and kissed the underbelly late yesterday. I continue to watch this as a proxy for the "dollar devaluation vs. asset class deflation" tussle.
- Twisting ARMS?
- March Expiration is a week away (that was fast!) and some unforeseen undercurrents will likely sway the fray. S&P 1275 has a whole lotta open interest (read: potential pin) and other notable names already look like they're being artificially drawn to their strikes (Intel 20, IBM 80, JPM 40). Remember, Minyans, whenever outsized open interest exists (relative to average daily volume of the underlying), a natural arb will impact the price action.
- Has Hoofy found a remedy for the nosty looking dandruff in the NDX?
- "Gold looks like pooh and prolly hits $534 on the Comex open (and close back at $544 by the am fix in
London on Monday). Just my take and not advice. Now, if someone will just show me the way to Minyans in the Mountains III, I'll be all set!" Professor Laurie McGuirk from his Perth , er, perch in Australia
- The definition of irony.
- Google tested its 200-day for the third time yesterday and managed to close (slightly) below for the first time ever. The Matador Crowd, using a crayon to draw the technical line in the sand, has yet to sweat as they make their bet.
- There's a fine line between protectionism and isolationism. But when in doubt, I gotta believe we should err on the side of caution.
- We can all learn a lesson from the actions of the critters.
- When will Boo rule? When he finally pokes the piggies. Until financials show signs of supply, the bovine will continue their upside try.
- Remember when $1,000,000,0000 was alotta money?
- Mini-Minyan Mailbag:
"Toddo, I'm really sad to hear that you have given up on a physical fitness program. If I were only allowed to give you only one piece of advice in your lifetime, based on personal/medical experience, it would be to keep physically active. You may not make more money but you WILL feel physically and mentally better. Thanks, Minyan G-Mac."
You're right, you' re right, I know you're right. I've always considered myself an athlete as I played five sports in high school, ran three NYC Marathons and have generally kept active throughout my adulthood. It only takes a momentary lapse of laziness or, in my case, a particularly hectic schedule before we blink and see a belly. With eight cities in seven weeks, ticks to trade, scribes to write, guitars to auction, critters to feed, family to see, friends that flourish and loves to lavish, something has to give. And that something is usually time.
You'll be happy to hear, however, that the Minyanville Hoops squad starts city league competition next week. We'll be running and gunning through our own version of March Madness and Minyans will undoubtedly hear how we fare. Along those lines, and since we're all on the same team here, we're looking for a few good (and preferably) tall men who care to put a body on someone. We've got salary cap restrictions but cool, foamy refreshments will likely follow each game.
- We're on official Ruby Peck business tonight as we hand deliver the all-star guitar to Minyan Brooks. On behalf of all the charities that have benefitted from the proceeds of this effort, we're gonna make this a weekend to remember. It'll start tonight at the Black Crowes concert and continue with hugs, handshakes and a few cold brews. Many thanks to everyone who has helped us in our effort to give something back. At the end of our journey, those efforts are the only true measure of wealth.
- Have a great weekend.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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