Suite: Judy Boo Eyes
Don't be stubborn Hoofs--live to fight another day!
It's getting to the point where I'm no fun anymore
I am sorry
Sometimes it hurts so badly I must cry out loud
I am lonely
(Crosby Stills Nash & Young)
The peek-a-boo continues as the Minx toys with traders and, fittingly, many have already reached that point. Apologies for cutting the last post in half but there are times I must choose between timely content and stylistic flair and in this tape, I'd rather err to the side of timeliness. That, of course, begs the natural question: In Minyanville, does size really matter?
I snuck an appendage into my bear costume on that attempted liftage. Boo's been bustin' my chops all morning but, truthfully, that had little to do with the decision. I've been looking for an entry point and as the countertrend rally appeared, I pulled the proverbial trigger. My thinking was/is that tapes that are heavy all day tend to end that way, the pennant formation was resolved to the downside (fresh signal), the banks are fugly and the likelihood of U.N/U.S discord continues to loom.
Naturally, there remain huge risks to both sides of the tape and, as such, I'm not pressing bets at any one level. One leg is a relatively "light" posture but it's consistent with my current positioning. If you pull up a five day chart in the S&P and NDX, you'll see what I see--NDX 965 and S&P 810 (then 806) are huge levels of contention. I don't sense that they'll ultimately hold but at the same time, I respect that they are there.
A fellow Minyan emailed to ask if "defined risk" applied to underlying stocks traded with a stop level. I would argue that it is as long as the market is open and you can adhere to your stops. As soon as we begin discussing overnight (gap) risk, the only way to define your exposure is via options. That's somewhat of a tangent thought but it's an important point to make as we wade our way through this muck.
Looking ahead, the Deutsche Bank Info Tech conference continues tomorrow (RFMD, LXK, MOT, EK, DELL, TLAB, QLGC, NT, SANM, SLR), Lehman starts their software & services sideshow (IBM, INFA, BMC, BOBJ, SUNW, CTXS, VRTS), Prudential starts their groovy semicap bus tour (TER, INTC, NVLS, A), Solly's Industrial fete begins (PH, GR, MMM, LEN, HON, TXT, ITT and a LOT more), NOK, ALTR and CHRT offer mid-quarter updates and Beeks will drop off wholesale inventories (exp. .3%).
I've got a midtown meeting at the bell so please bear with me on the afternoon posts. Clearly, I'll bang out one more missive before I scoot but, as always, I just wanted to give my fellow Minyans a heads up. If you're frustrated and bummed out, do what I do--email Fokker and lay into him!
I'll be back.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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