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Terrapin Toddo


Sell hope until it stops working!


The sailor gave at least a try,
The soldier being much too wise,
Strategy was his strength
And not disaster

(Grateful Dead)

It's a brisk morning in Minyanville and the critters are scurrying about as they prepare for another psychotic session. With last week's nuttiness effectively "swept away" during our requisite two day respite, it's time to shake out those cobwebs and sharpen our pencils. There will be no excuses once the opening bell tolls so take a deep breath, pour yourself another cup of joe and let's get this party started right.

In overnight news, Lehman upgrade of the independent refiners, Solly reduced their semiconductor growth forecast, Montgomery upped DD, BCC wet the bed and Deutsche Telekom (pension concerns) is leading the DAX lower. To add insult to injury, Russia basically thumbed their nose at the U.N resolution and that' s gotta be an incremental negative as it relates to our earlier discussion.

While the geopolitical landscape is once again taking center stage, the periphery will once again be littered with potential catalysts. Deutsche Bank begins their Info Tech conference (HPQ, EMC, VRTS, CLS, CSCO, SUNW, GLW, NTAP, IBM, ELX), Lehman's Global Services fete kicks off (CHKP, MERQ, ISSX, LU, PSFT, CSC, UIS, SYMC, BEAS) and JPM is hosting KLAC for some schnitzel.

Friday's scared Bear rally saved the day in chartland and our technical inflection points remain largely in tact. The pennant formation in the S&P continues to play out and I'll once again be focused on that. Watch S&P 820 as an important support while resistance emerges in the mid 830's. For tech, NDX 970 (then 950) is support while NDX 1010 (trendline) and 1020 will act as resistance. Finally, keep have an eye peeled for BKX 700 and SOX 280 as important areas of support.

Tells today include the dollar (early slippage), the financials (GS negative in Barron's), the semis (Solly cautious), the retailers (consumer proxy), our levels and, of course, the internals. I'll also be keeping an ear to the ground for Flow, Alice, as we find our way today. Friday's action was dominated by call buying and put selling (as traders postured for a potential Osama capture) and, as you know, I tend to view one-way flow as a contrary indicator.

I continue to view this tape with a scrunched nose and wary eye and my bearish predication remains in tact. Still, I shivered my way into work today naked (sans bull or bear costume) and will remain on my toes as we edge into action. Remember, it's not necessary to play every move, it's only necessary to win the one's we choose to play.

Choose wisely, have a fantastic day and don't forget to tune that television to CNNfn for Snoop Tone's latest take.

Good luck.

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