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Terrapin Toddo

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Sell hope until it stops working!

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The sailor gave at least a try,
The soldier being much too wise,
Strategy was his strength
And not disaster


(Grateful Dead)

It's a brisk morning in Minyanville and the critters are scurrying about as they prepare for another psychotic session. With last week's nuttiness effectively "swept away" during our requisite two day respite, it's time to shake out those cobwebs and sharpen our pencils. There will be no excuses once the opening bell tolls so take a deep breath, pour yourself another cup of joe and let's get this party started right.

In overnight news, Lehman upgrade of the independent refiners, Solly reduced their semiconductor growth forecast, Montgomery upped DD, BCC wet the bed and Deutsche Telekom (pension concerns) is leading the DAX lower. To add insult to injury, Russia basically thumbed their nose at the U.N resolution and that' s gotta be an incremental negative as it relates to our earlier discussion.

While the geopolitical landscape is once again taking center stage, the periphery will once again be littered with potential catalysts. Deutsche Bank begins their Info Tech conference (HPQ, EMC, VRTS, CLS, CSCO, SUNW, GLW, NTAP, IBM, ELX), Lehman's Global Services fete kicks off (CHKP, MERQ, ISSX, LU, PSFT, CSC, UIS, SYMC, BEAS) and JPM is hosting KLAC for some schnitzel.

Friday's scared Bear rally saved the day in chartland and our technical inflection points remain largely in tact. The pennant formation in the S&P continues to play out and I'll once again be focused on that. Watch S&P 820 as an important support while resistance emerges in the mid 830's. For tech, NDX 970 (then 950) is support while NDX 1010 (trendline) and 1020 will act as resistance. Finally, keep have an eye peeled for BKX 700 and SOX 280 as important areas of support.

Tells today include the dollar (early slippage), the financials (GS negative in Barron's), the semis (Solly cautious), the retailers (consumer proxy), our levels and, of course, the internals. I'll also be keeping an ear to the ground for Flow, Alice, as we find our way today. Friday's action was dominated by call buying and put selling (as traders postured for a potential Osama capture) and, as you know, I tend to view one-way flow as a contrary indicator.

I continue to view this tape with a scrunched nose and wary eye and my bearish predication remains in tact. Still, I shivered my way into work today naked (sans bull or bear costume) and will remain on my toes as we edge into action. Remember, it's not necessary to play every move, it's only necessary to win the one's we choose to play.

Choose wisely, have a fantastic day and don't forget to tune that television to CNNfn for Snoop Tone's latest take.

Good luck.






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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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