Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Dip
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Earnings Report - MV News
- Kohl's (KSS) reports 4Q EPS of $1.48 vs. $1.43 cons on revs of $5.43 bln vs. $5.40 bln cons.
- Dell (DELL) reports 4Q EPS of $0.30 vs. $0.28 cons on revs of $14.4 bln vs. $14.72 bln cons.
- Gap (GPS) reports 4Q EPS of $0.27 vs. $0.24 on revs of $4.9 bln, previously announced on 2/8.
Buzz in the Afternoon - Todd Harrison - 2:36 PM
- As I'm outie at 2:45 (downtown meld) and Pep has already scooted for his (well deserved) four day weekend, I'm secretly hoping the last hour is a quiet affair. Anyone care to make a wager on that?
- One of the things we talked about yesterday was mentally preparing to miss some moves. That's an important element of "the ability not to trade is as important as trading ability" and will often alleviate emotional decisions (ie-chasing).
- Many thanks to Minyan Mish on sharing this interview with Dr. Minyan Marc Faber.
- The laggy action in gold (and silver, -4%) isn't lost on me today, particularly with the dollar higher. The Phantom is watching as well.
- I gotta hop Minyans--my sincere apologies--as I'm slammin' and jammin' with a quick view before I jettison downtown. Fare ye well into the bell and have a fantastic close!
Calzone Coma Randoms - Jeff Macke - 2:08 PM
- No conference call from Dell (DELL) tonight. The company is opting instead to report its previously announced earnings miss via press release. It might be time for Mr. Dell to ask himself what Steve Jobs, Douglas MacArthur, Napoleon Bonaparte et al would do, if/when they were launching comebacks (hint: it wasn't review their failures in print).
- One guy who can get away with talking to investors in print, Warren Buffett, will be releasing his always interesting annual letter here, this afternoon at 4pm, East Coast time.
- Big happenings in software today with Orca (ORCL) swallowing Hyperion (HYP) and reports coming from Germany that Silverlake is looking for a stake in SAP (SAP). There's limited growth in them there software woods, making it a natural area for acquisition-based growth.
- I felt bad watching folks line-up for the quarter-billion-plus Mega Millions drawing this week... those suckers don't even know I've already bought the winning ticket.
- (Actual odds of winning are 1: 175,711,563.)
Spot O' Gold - Lance Lewis - 12:23 PM
Note that spot gold, as of yesterday's close, has made a new all-time high monthly close. See the chart here.
Also note that while the equity market has been trashed over the last couple days, gold is showing relative strength. Why?
Because gold knows that the credit rot in mortgage land that is hitting equity markets will bring about Fed action eventually.
If anyone thinks Heli-Ben cares about the dollar or inflation, think again... For example, note Heli-Ben's comments yesterday regarding what the Fed would do if foreigners began to sell US debt.
When asked by one congressman what would happen if foreigners started selling US debt, Heli-Ben responded that long-term interest rates would probably rise, which would probably hurt the economy. But, he then added that the Fed could soften the downturn by easing. I kid you not. I'm still looking for a transcript so I can get the exact quote right, but we don't call him Heli-Ben for nothing. Strangely, nobody asked the question: "Wouldn't that actually accelerate the selling in the dollar and US bonds?" We don't call him Heli-Ben for nothing.
Tuesday's "crashette" in stocks and the ongoing meltdown in subprime mortgage-land are the signal that the Fed is going to be forced to ease soon, regardless of whether they "can" or "should." Look for the Fed to make a move to "neutral" at the March 21st FOMC meeting, which gold will likely anticipate and rally into.
Position in gold shares
Under the Hood - Kevin Depew - 11:59 AM
- By the way, it's still early, but so far new point and figure sell signals are leading by a 48 to 0 margin.
- Overall sell signals are leading 78 to 1.
- The lone buy signal is Ruddick (RDK), a regional supermarket chain operator, which even now is actually back down on the day.
- As well, it appears that unless we get a tremendous number of point and figure buy signals later today that the S&P 500 bullish percent may very well reverse down indicating supply is in control of the market.
- The NDX Bullish Percent is already negative.
- The NYSE Bullish Percent is 2.7% away from a reversal to negative, but is getting closer as well.
- I would be wary of anyone who tries to downplay the risk in the market here no matter what happens today. The point and figure indicators are clearly showing that internally the technical structure is deteriorating even as field position remains poor and in high risk areas.
- A supply controlled market does not mean the indices will collapse, but it does mean there is very little margin for error for long positions and that surprises will occur to the downside.
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