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Random Thoughts

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The question remains: how immediate the immediate will be?

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I'm learning to fly but I aint got wings
Coming down is the hardest thing


(Tom Petty)



  • I return from my 24-hour left coast turnaround to find the world awash in Red. First thing's first, many thanks to our friends at TD-Ameritrade for the honor of hosting their APEX live soiree at Disneyland . The Grand Ballroom was 1200 deep as we championed the Minyan vibe and built upon our community.

  • Yesterday's action was anemic on the heels of Terrible Tuesday and we humbly offered that further downside was in the immediate midst. It raised some eyebrows but, hopefully, it also saved some shekels. The question remains: how immediate the immediate will be?

  • As I offered at the conference yesterday, I think rallies are meant to be sold under the broken trendlines (such as S&P 1445).

  • I humbly disagree with the pundits who are pounding the table that "nothing has shifted in the global economy" is a catalyst to buy stocks. That's not to say we can't see rallies but, from where I sit, the market is a leading indicator. By the time validation arrives, it'll be baked into the tape. And yes, from my perch, that still smells a lot like denial.

  • I was supremely impressed with Professor Ryan Krueger during yesterday's afternoon Minyan huddle. He's gonna share his "list" with ye faithful today.

  • Petty or the Boss?

  • Minyanville prides itself as the financial news you need to know before you know you need it. That thought resonated as I hear the mainstream press circle back to themes and thoughts we've been talking about on the 'Ville for a mighty long time.

  • "All our dreams can come true - if we have the courage to pursue them...I only hope that we don't lose sight of one thing - that it was all started by a mouse." Walt Disney, 1901-1966, Cartoon Artist and Producer

  • An uptick in the volatility of volatility? Yeah, something like that. The VXO is up 30...no, 20...no 25...no 10...no 4% today. I am not Chasing Amy but I stand by my call that higher vols will be a hallmark of 2007.

  • Remember that Google gap? It's "game on," Minyans, and it "works" to $430ish on a technical basis.

  • I picked (not scratched) at two stocks of late--SunMicro and Goldenstar. Nothing crazy but I like these names and have protection against.

  • What protection? Not my 9 mm, baby--that's saved for the Italian bird--I'm talking about my financial puts. And how am I playing those? I scaled out of the "deeps" (in-the-moneys that got chubby in a hurry) as my "under-neaths" awake from the dead.

  • Citi, which was the first financial to flip the upside switch, has pulled its brethren higher in synch. They lead us down...

  • Meanwhile, market breadth is "only" 2:1 negative. In a futures led market (which we have), this can lag so factor that into your assimilation.

  • The drillers are trying to stand up and step out. Weatherford was the tell this morning (green in a crimson tide) and, true to form, that "implied demand" has continued. OSX 200 is again testing the 50- and 200-day moving average.

  • Some of the smarter traders I know are...sitting it out? Yep, they offered that it's too toxic right now and they work too hard for their coin to toss 'em on blind bets. Hard to disagree with that, regardless of whether we're up or down a deuce when thy closing bell tolls.

  • Chip flippage, strong software, nets turning---this is either a meaningful reversal or the trading gods have a vicious sense of humor.


R.P.

Positions in SUNW, GSS, financials

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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