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Random Thoughts


The question remains: how immediate the immediate will be?


I'm learning to fly but I aint got wings
Coming down is the hardest thing

(Tom Petty)

  • I return from my 24-hour left coast turnaround to find the world awash in Red. First thing's first, many thanks to our friends at TD-Ameritrade for the honor of hosting their APEX live soiree at Disneyland . The Grand Ballroom was 1200 deep as we championed the Minyan vibe and built upon our community.

  • Yesterday's action was anemic on the heels of Terrible Tuesday and we humbly offered that further downside was in the immediate midst. It raised some eyebrows but, hopefully, it also saved some shekels. The question remains: how immediate the immediate will be?

  • As I offered at the conference yesterday, I think rallies are meant to be sold under the broken trendlines (such as S&P 1445).

  • I humbly disagree with the pundits who are pounding the table that "nothing has shifted in the global economy" is a catalyst to buy stocks. That's not to say we can't see rallies but, from where I sit, the market is a leading indicator. By the time validation arrives, it'll be baked into the tape. And yes, from my perch, that still smells a lot like denial.

  • I was supremely impressed with Professor Ryan Krueger during yesterday's afternoon Minyan huddle. He's gonna share his "list" with ye faithful today.

  • Petty or the Boss?

  • Minyanville prides itself as the financial news you need to know before you know you need it. That thought resonated as I hear the mainstream press circle back to themes and thoughts we've been talking about on the 'Ville for a mighty long time.

  • "All our dreams can come true - if we have the courage to pursue them...I only hope that we don't lose sight of one thing - that it was all started by a mouse." Walt Disney, 1901-1966, Cartoon Artist and Producer

  • An uptick in the volatility of volatility? Yeah, something like that. The VXO is up, 4% today. I am not Chasing Amy but I stand by my call that higher vols will be a hallmark of 2007.

  • Remember that Google gap? It's "game on," Minyans, and it "works" to $430ish on a technical basis.

  • I picked (not scratched) at two stocks of late--SunMicro and Goldenstar. Nothing crazy but I like these names and have protection against.

  • What protection? Not my 9 mm, baby--that's saved for the Italian bird--I'm talking about my financial puts. And how am I playing those? I scaled out of the "deeps" (in-the-moneys that got chubby in a hurry) as my "under-neaths" awake from the dead.

  • Citi, which was the first financial to flip the upside switch, has pulled its brethren higher in synch. They lead us down...

  • Meanwhile, market breadth is "only" 2:1 negative. In a futures led market (which we have), this can lag so factor that into your assimilation.

  • The drillers are trying to stand up and step out. Weatherford was the tell this morning (green in a crimson tide) and, true to form, that "implied demand" has continued. OSX 200 is again testing the 50- and 200-day moving average.

  • Some of the smarter traders I know are...sitting it out? Yep, they offered that it's too toxic right now and they work too hard for their coin to toss 'em on blind bets. Hard to disagree with that, regardless of whether we're up or down a deuce when thy closing bell tolls.

  • Chip flippage, strong software, nets turning---this is either a meaningful reversal or the trading gods have a vicious sense of humor.


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Positions in SUNW, GSS, financials
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