By Todd Harrison Feb 09, 2005 1:02 pm
Have you come here for forgiveness?
Have you come to raise the dead?
Have you come here to play Hoofy?
To the lepers in your head?
The Hump Day soiree is a crimson display as the bulls try to turn the ursine away. After a brief hesaidwhat?, Boo's crew stepped forward and captured the all-important breadth mint. Losers are outpacing winners 2:1 and the longer that dynamic exists, the higher the probability of a heavy close. With various levels looming and reactive traders zooming, today's bell has assumed an "all of a sudden" importance.
I've always viewed the technical metric as more of a backbone than a body as it offers a framework with which to trade. In the last several sessions, active players have positioned themselves long using proxies such as the S&P (1196), BKX (102) and SOX (420) as a backstop. While this type of trading is a tad reactive (after a nice lift), it offers rationalization for those looking for "data points." But with 8000 hedgies standing in a circle shooting at each other, the relative worth rests somewhere between self-fulfilling and dilutive.
Hoofy will argue that a retest of the collective inflection is par for the course. Between the yen for yield and the merger mania, it's hard to draw a line in the sand and fight him on that. At the same time, the conditioned complacency is such that a speed bump could flip the lopsided lean (ala January) and lower prices will then stir the "strong economy vs. debt induced euphoria" debate. I know that sounds a bit hedgy (it is) but walking through the probability spectrum is helpful when gauging relative risk.
Stepping off point for a moment, I've been having a lot of conversations lately regarding the future of media and the convergence of applications. We recently spoke about how Madison Avenue must redirect their advertising spend as a function of traditional channels being choked off (DVRs). Anecdotal evidence surrounds us daily, whether it's online advertising or the goofy (yet profitable) trend of renting out body parts to the highest bidder. My sense is that we'll see a surge of product placements in various content propositions and within the video game arena. How that manifests via stock prices and performance remains an open-ended--and opportunistic-- question.
Long days in the 'Ville but all good even still. I'm gonna hop back over to the Buzz and try to make some witty and insightful observations as we edge down the back of the hump. I sincerely hope that you're all hangin' tough and exercising your right to be selective. At the end of the day (week, year, career), nobody will care how many trades we make. They'll only care about how many trades were profitable.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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