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My Take on Hewlett-Packard

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Sometimes you win,
sometimes you lose,
sometimes it rains.


It's raining all over my Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) puts this morning, as the stock rallies angry in response to Carly's ouster. Some assorted responses:

  • Hey, Walter Hewlett, if you're reading this, let's go out and have a couple pints at the "Moral-Victories-Don't-Pay" discount pub.

  • Does the company 180 now that Ms. Fiorina is gone? I doubt it very strongly.

  • "Absolutely not" is the answer to if I'm re-loading the puts. I'll hold a little burial ceremony for them in March but the stock simply isn't a short here. EPS, fuzzy numbers, "one time charge" games, none of them matter for the immediate future.

  • That and the fact that the story is now a very easy pitch on the sell-side ("Turn around story down there... look at the multiple!" etc.) is the reason the stock is so strong.

  • I don't like the stock long or short here. After the dust settles and we see who is going to be running the joint now it may be an asset-play long. But whoever the BOD chooses, they'll have a lot of re-building to do.

  • If I were the interim CEO I wouldn't want to "focus on the past" either, as that discussion would include a whole lotta "What did shareholders get in return for paying Ms. Fiorina hundreds of millions of dollars?" type of questions.
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