Buzz Bits: Dow Inches, Nasdaq Climbs Into Green
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Earnings Report - MV News
- Disney (DIS) reports 1Q EPS of $0.50 vs. $0.39 cons on revs of $9.73 bln vs. $9.49 bln cons.
- Electronic Data (EDS) reports 4Q EPS of $0.47 vs. $0.37 cons on revs of $5.7 bln vs. $5.57 bln cons.
- Prudential (PRU) reports 4Q EPS of $1.67 vs. $1.52 cons on revs of $6.55 bln vs. $6.25 bln cons.
Bell Buzz - Todd Harrison - 3:42 PM
- In like a lamb, out like a chop? Cisco (+3.5%) and crude (-2%) aside, today's tally is a muted affair.
- Cisco as a "broader market catalyst" thing? It's more a tiny piece of the fundamental puzzle which, in turn, is one of our four primary metrics. The days of moon shots and sharp drops (on the heels of one stock) are seemingly behind us.
- Or...maybe that's just what they want us to think.
- Reading between the lines, the ability of the piggies to stick above BKX 119 would bode well for the bovine bunch. The acne is still tender (read: the banks haven't officially broken out) but it bears watching. And they are.
- Chewing through the dew before our MVHQ Board Meeting this evening. I wish ye faithful a fruitful night and we'll pick it up fresh in the ayem. May peace be with you.
Is that a bell I hear? - Fil Zucchi - 2:18 PM
With the Blackstone / Equity Office Properties (EOP) deal now in the books, the pavlovian reaction is to ask ourselves whether in a few years we'll look back and say that this merger was in fact the bell that rang the top of this real estate mania. How bad a deal do I think this is?
I don't think any of the numbers we can throw around (P/FFO, P/B, PEG's) really do it justice because in the scheme of real estate valuations, all those numbers stopped making sense about 50% ago. Perhaps it is best to keep it simple and just acknowledge that the man who was buying properties hand over fist from the Resolution Trust Corporation back in the early '90s is walking away from the party with a Hugh Heffner grin on his face, and that the second dumbest kid in the neighborhood - Vornado (VNO) - is being handed a $1 billion market cap reward for not doing the deal. Time will write the rest of this story.
Position in VNO, IYR
Eye Why Eeee? - Kevin Depew - 1:59 PM
- I've been taking a look at the iShares Energy ETF (IYE) as a lot of contention seems to be building up in the market with respect to Energy.
- Technically, 102 was an important resistance level both in point and figure terms and DeMark terms.
- From a tactical trading perspective, I don't think the time is right yet for energy longs. The weekly chart of the IYE, for example, is nearing a potential DeMark TD-Sequential sell signal and both the daily bar chart and point and figure charts have technical problems.
- This doesn't mean Energy as a long-term secular play is in jeopardy, but, in tactical terms, it does mean there are better opportunities elsewhere.
- For example, I am still bullish on Biotech and see some potentially longer-term positive point and figure patterns developing in both the Biotech HOLDRs (BBH) and iShares Biotech ETF (IBB).
- The IBB breaks a triple bottom at 79, so below that would require a reevaluation of the bullish setup.
- A similar level in the BBH would be around 186.
- Department of Worst-Thought-Out Product Campaigns: A Japanese brewery has developed a beer mixed with milk, called... wait for it.... Bilk. Seriously.
- At Kirkland Washington's Terra Bite Lounge, customers pay what and when they like, or not at all - it makes no difference to the cafe employees, who are instructed not to peek when people put money in the metal lock box, according to the Seattle Times. That makes it the most expensive restaurant in Washington, or the least expensive, depending on how you look at it.
Some thoughts on the 10 and 30 year auctions and risk... - Bennet Sedacca - 9:16 AM
Prior to the 3-year auction lately, I opined that many were short and expected a lousy auction. That of course set up a good auction as the market tends to frustrate the majority.
Move forward to today. Now I hear people are long going into the 10 and 30 year auctions, which of course, sets up a mediocre auction at best. We are also coming up on hourly resistance--see the chart here. And 88 resistance in TLT. See that chart here.
Personally, I find no value in this part of the curve. the very fact that foreigners have bought so many U.S. Treasuries the last couple of years have set up the curve to be inverted when it otherwise wouldn't be. Their persistent buying without regard to price has created the inversion in my opinion. In addition to very tight spreads in corporates.
Markets they say, are like rubber bands. they stretch to extremes only to snap back.
Risk, in my opinion, is mis-priced generally. So I avoid risk. I simply find other ways to perform by carefully buying mis-priced high quality securities like 7% ARM's around 100-101. When the re-pricing comes, and it will someday, I will embrace risk.
I heard on TV the other day that 'buy low sell high is a fairy tale.' I respectfully disagree.
Position in ARM's.
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