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Random Thoughts

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Keep an eye on Texas Tea, Minyans, as it's starting to act fugly.

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  • Is anyone picking up a trend here? The more ETF's are linked to the metals--this time, in the land of the rising sun--the more demand there is for Katherine Martin (a.k.a. Precious).

  • So, Chambo guides higher and the Cisco kid pops a bone. I opined yesterday that if Google wasn't a broader market catalyst, I don't foresee Cisco as one. And I still feel that by the time we eye thy closing bell, the A.D.D. trading community will have already shifted focus.

  • That doesn't mean we can't (or shouldn't) extrapolate what it means for telecom, tech or the digital evolution. When it comes to "next-gen media," however, I wanna follow the smart money.

  • I'm gonna get that Minyanville guy. And when I'm done, I'm going after Hoofy and Boo. And when they're toast, I'm gonna find Toddo!

  • Keep an eye on Texas Tea, Minyans, as it's starting to act fugly. Our buddy Earl stopped on a dime--literally--at $50/brl, overcame initial resistance at $55 and, seemingly on cue, has paused at $60. I share this with the active traders in our midst as there are some relatively defined technical toggles. Big picture, I think oil trades higher (all other things being equal) but near-term, I'm playing my cards close to my vest.

  • When's the last time you wore a vest? That's so Julia Gulia!

  • Speaking of smart money--or, in this case, Fast Money--Television's JeffMacke® wants to see Minyans step up to his small screen webcam. If you've got a face for radio--er, television--please don't hesitate to lettuce know!

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey finds a drop in bullish sentiment to 52.2% vs. 53.3% last week and an increase in bearish sentiment to 22.2% vs. 21.1% prior. Those expecting a correction stayed steady at 25.6%.

  • "The Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on Celestica's (CLS) debt have widened meaningfully over the last few days. While some of it probably has to do with agency ratings' downgrades, considering that CLS has as much cash on hand as it has debt, one would think that creditors should not be at much risk. I raise this because the unregulated CDS market is where we have seen "mysterious" moves just before LBO's, deals where balance sheets are loaded up with fresh debt causing a justifiable move in the CDS." Professor Fil Zucchi making an astute observation on today's Buzz.

  • The chief tell for further swell, from where I sit, are the piggies, which continue to poke at all-time acne above BKX 119.

  • Watch the drillers as they continue to struggle at OSX 200. So ya know, I have yet to climb back aboard the Matador Express after paring my trading exposure in this complex last week. We spoke of the potential of a trade to this level back when crude was under distribution and this sector was hated. That may have been the "easy" trade and I'm watching for now.

  • Speaking of discipline, I didn't reach for my metal faves (GSS among them) this morning, choosing instead to practice what I preach. I think I'll have the opportunity to add cheaper inventory in the coming days. Unless, of course, those frisky foreign buyers get uppity.


R.P.

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Positions in metals, energy, financials, GSS
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