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Random Thoughts


This is my type of session!


  • "Leverage is the name of the game," he said. "Why buy one house with cash when you can buy 10 of them at 10 percent down?"

  • Deja Who?

  • "The S&P Semiconductor Index rose 4.6% last week and the Semi Cap Equipment Index rose 5%. We don't like the long-term pattern for the stocks in these sectors but it looks to us like last week's rally is likely to continue near-term. Using the Phila Semi Index (SOX) as our proxy, the index is right at its downward sloping 50- and 200-day moving averages which proved problematic in December '04 and early January '05, but we're expecting the index to work through here this time. a SOX 450 near-term target seems right." Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder.

  • Cheers Meehan!

  • "The major indexes we track put in a second positive week for the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 100 while, the NDX 100 finally had a positive week. Squeezeometer signals moved for the S&P 100 from sell/sell short as of January 18th to cash/speculative buy on February 1st. The NDX 100 moved from sell/short as of January 10th to cash/speculative buy on February 2nd. The S&P 100 remains in rally in downtrend on a monthly basis and downtrend on a weekly basis. Meanwhile, the NDX 100 remains rally in downtrend or cash/speculative buy mode on a monthly basis and downtrend on a weekly basis. Our 14 day choppiness index for the NDX 100 moved upward as the index now sits at 48 up from 46 last week. This index ranges from 0 to 100 and the lower it goes the more a trend is evolving over the past fourteen days. Currently, it looks like the downward trend for the NDX 100 may be reaching an end. Also, the S&P 100 sees its 14 day choppiness index standing at 49 down from 61. The S&P 100 has closed above its weekly DMA channel while the NDX 100 remains below its DMA channel.." Phil "my pockets" Erlanger on today's Buzz and from his always excellent website.

  • G-Whiz!

  • The Monday Minx is a quiet affair as traders weigh drippy crude (-2%), firm (but not snazzy) internals, constructive charts (above S&P 1196/BKX 102), draggy nets (Google (GOOG) is punishing the reachers) and a strong dollar (DXY 85). Volume is (again) thin.

  • Metal equities are underperforming the underlying commodities.

  • Contrary to initial police reports, Neil Glassman was NOT--repeat NOT--in Sweden this past weekend.

  • Specs get short the 30-year bond futes.

  • A page from 'roid rage.

  • "Historically, a flat yield curve (as we have now) has telegraphed a softening economy, which is what we have repeatedly suggested is occurring (read: muddle). Yet, we think in this case a flat yield curve has even broader implications (given the "financials in drag" such as Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) that make most of their earnings from the finance side of their businesses)." Jeff "as good as it gets" Saut of Raymond James in his always insightful weekly missive.

  • Orange Juice!

  • Vibes on the flattening yield curve.

  • "Toddo posted a link reporting on large specs in 30-year Bond futures. I would hasten to add that the CFTC recently changed the reporting limits for what constitutes a "large speculator". For 30-year Bonds, the limit was raised from 1,000 contracts to 1,500. For 10-year Notes, the limit went from 1,000 to 2,000. For 5-years, the limit rose from 800 all the way to 2,000. The result is that it is now difficult (impossible?) to compare apples-to-apples when looking at current futures positions versus historical ones. We are now dealing with a different set of traders than we were before." Jason Goepfert on today's Buzz.

  • Guilt-free sushi!

  • Donovan didn't play well but the Eagles were in a position to steal the game at the end. What I didn't see--and what ultimately cost them the championship--was the lack of urgency (2-minute drill?) when down by two scores in the fourth quarter. No disrespect to the Patriots--they are a legitimate dynasty and have one of the finest organizations in professional sports.

  • Message to John Thain: It's not too late to do the right thing.

  • The purpose of the journey is the journey itself.

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