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Random Thoughts

By

...you never own enough when a stock is trading higher and you never complain when you're making money.

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  • Apologies for the Monday MIA, Minyans, as I was wrestling with a critter of a different kind.

  • Is that reverse dandruff in the yellow metal? It feels like it although, in the interest of being forthright, I'm far from a full position. I pared my (trading side) "stuff" longs into the FOMC last week and, while I'm 'there,' I'm not brimming at the gills.

  • I'm told there were some meaty put buyers around yesterday in the retail complex ahead of Tuesday's numbers. So ya know.

  • Snaps to Peyton and the Colts for shaking the monkey off their backs. I was rooting for Da Bears but Indy paid its dues and deserves a crown.

  • Our triple acne tells mixed---the Russell is above 800, the piggies are AT BKX 119 and the Trannies are back below the all important TRAN 5K.

  • "I mentioned at the TD-AMTD APEX Show (in Houston), while Todd sat next to me dreaming of wearing a cowboy hat, chewing tobacco and letting cattle roam the pasture nearby his gas wells (and none of those pesky state taxes bro!), that I thought the next private equity buyouts to surprise in size would be in the ole energy patch. If they don't, it's likely because the futures markets make them too expensive." Professor Ryan Krueger on today's Buzz.

  • So, the Raiders are 200-1 to win next year's Superbowl? Not rich enough for my blood but I would never sell an option at half a cent.

  • Many Minyans who attended MIM2 in Ojai were treated to a Transformations session with Dana Patterson. I know it's not for everyone but, for what it's worth, she's been my de-facto spiritual advisor for over seven years and I think she's superb. Keep an open mind and give her a try.

  • Do I own "enough" SunMicro, GoldenStar or ITT Corp? If I've learned anything, it's that you never own enough when a stock is trading higher. I've also learned that you never complain when you're making money--that's the ultimate "mush." All three remain on my laundry dip list.

  • I'm monitoring PHO (water ETF) as it probes the '06 high (I own a bit and plan to get more aggressive at lower levels). Water, as my friend Jeff Saut says, is a most precious commodity.

  • Personally, I won't miss Graem Bauer. He's always rubbed me the wrong way.

  • What's up with the Cisco Disco? I don't have much of an edge but, for what it's worth, I don't think it'll matter for the tape much either way. Too many variables and strong macro crosscurrents should put this puppy in the rear-view by this time tomorrow.

  • Is the tape vulnerable? Sure--but until the financials show signs of stress, the broader supply will likely be transitory.

  • Where should Minyans mingle for MIM4? Cast your vote now as we noodle our next steps!


R.P.

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Position in metals, pho, itt, sunw, gss, financials
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