Where Care, Bear?
The market acts well...the internals are improving, the stochastics are coiled---it's all good, right? Yes, it's good if your long...it's also good if you're looking to get short! There are many ways to skin a Minx, my friends, and what you do--and how you do it--is a function of your time frame, risk profile and view.
As I watch the gap fillage in the NDX, the SOX trading right up to resistance (280), the S&P edging towards Monday's close (gap) and the shorts scrambling to cover, my inclination is to s-l-o-w-l-y slip into my bear costume. I'm adding one leg goes in right here (S&P 855). Once I have my requisite exposure that serves as an extension of my thought process, I'm gonna count to 100 backwards (by primes) and see where we stand.
Am I going to the well once too often? I can't answer that without the benefit of hindsight--but I will always communicate my honest feel and why I'm feeling it. My gut is that, barring Saddam's exile to Del Boca Vista, we're (unfortunately) going to war--with or without the U.N. Even if we don't, the prospect of such an event will likely quell the near-term upside.
Gotta hop and get this to my fellow Minyans. May peace be with you.
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