Gips and Gaps
Walls of worry eventually crumble on the bears!
With the news blaring loudly in the background, I wanted to point out two trends in my trusty 5-day gips (charts). In the NDX, a gap exists (from yesterday's opening) that will be "filled" at 988. In the S&P, an uptrend line drawn from yesterday's lows produces initial support around 846ish while a similar gap works to 860. So you know...and so we're watching the same thing.
The flow this morning has been more manicuring than anything else but there WAS a large buyer of XAU April 80 puts that stuck out like a sore thumb. I know this index (and many of the stocks) hasn't performed as well as the underlying (gold.com) but these names have become 'in vogue" and I wanted to pass it along.
I've done a bit less this morning. I faded (read: sold) the initial pop as I sensed there would be at "least" a pocket of concern before the speech. I didn't telegraph the fade because it happened so quick--by the time I would have written it, I woulda been out of it. It truly was licketly split schnitz, my friends, so apologies at not penning the intent.
Now, as we all listen to C.P, the zillion dollar question becomes: what now? I continue to key off of S&P 840 on the downside (make/break) as well as the action in the banks (wavering but hanging tough). I can 'see' both sides in the uber-near term but, ultimately, I want to use rallies as an opportunities to make sales. Is there a trade to the upside between now and then? I'm not sure...this could be a bear trap and I'm wary that this catalyst (to make sales) may be too scripted.
Remember--the goal is to use prices as an opportunity and if you're bearish, higher levels should be mouth watering. If you believe in the upside, there are many ways to play it as well. My point is, don't defer to the actions of others by getting bullish higher and bearish lower--that's a recipe for whippage.
I'm gonna go listen to the big fella--fare ye well, my friends, and remember to think positive.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Daily Recap Newsletter