Gips and Gaps
Walls of worry eventually crumble on the bears!
With the news blaring loudly in the background, I wanted to point out two trends in my trusty 5-day gips (charts). In the NDX, a gap exists (from yesterday's opening) that will be "filled" at 988. In the S&P, an uptrend line drawn from yesterday's lows produces initial support around 846ish while a similar gap works to 860. So you know...and so we're watching the same thing.
The flow this morning has been more manicuring than anything else but there WAS a large buyer of XAU April 80 puts that stuck out like a sore thumb. I know this index (and many of the stocks) hasn't performed as well as the underlying (gold.com) but these names have become 'in vogue" and I wanted to pass it along.
I've done a bit less this morning. I faded (read: sold) the initial pop as I sensed there would be at "least" a pocket of concern before the speech. I didn't telegraph the fade because it happened so quick--by the time I would have written it, I woulda been out of it. It truly was licketly split schnitz, my friends, so apologies at not penning the intent.
Now, as we all listen to C.P, the zillion dollar question becomes: what now? I continue to key off of S&P 840 on the downside (make/break) as well as the action in the banks (wavering but hanging tough). I can 'see' both sides in the uber-near term but, ultimately, I want to use rallies as an opportunities to make sales. Is there a trade to the upside between now and then? I'm not sure...this could be a bear trap and I'm wary that this catalyst (to make sales) may be too scripted.
Remember--the goal is to use prices as an opportunity and if you're bearish, higher levels should be mouth watering. If you believe in the upside, there are many ways to play it as well. My point is, don't defer to the actions of others by getting bullish higher and bearish lower--that's a recipe for whippage.
I'm gonna go listen to the big fella--fare ye well, my friends, and remember to think positive.
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