By Todd Harrison Feb 04, 2004 3:20 pm
Good luck into the close!
Broken bottles under children's feet
Bodies strewn across the dead end street
But I won't heed the battle call
It puts my back up, my back up against the wall
Man oh man, I've gotta tell ya...there's busy, there's busy, and then there's BUSY! When the ticks and tocks meet the flicks of stocks, the schvitz will always hit the proverbial fan. That's the downside of 24 hour days--after factoring in the requisite naps, there's only so much time to sling the slime. With that said, let's get cookin' and fire up some content.
Alright, the breadth has been nastola all day and that's been my primary read. Whenever I'm looking for intraday clues, I like to watch how certain tells react to the counter-trend moves. In other words, today's prevailing trend is lower but there have been rally attempts. When Snapper has tried to get his groove on, my eyes scanned the internals (no bounce), the semis (supply filled in), Cisco (CSCO:NASD) (under distribution) and the financials (the money center banks still hang tough).
As we approach "better" support (S&P 1115-1120 and NDX 1450), the obvious question is "what now?" My sense (not advice) is that they'll hold the first time, particularly with the semiconductor, cyclical and trannie stochastics getting a tad twisty. How much confidence do I have? Some...my big picture bearish bent remains, I'm simply trying to view the big pictures as a series of little pictures.
Away from the equity fray, the macro landscape is nondescript with the notable exception of the Bovespa. The Brazilian wax continues (smooth!) and is now down 12% in the last five sessions. I don't have a story, per se, but the trend of "rolling volatility" continues. First it was in the dollar, then gold, then crude, then bonds and now it's sweeping through the equity markets. Along those lines, the VXO is now a whisper away from 18 and I've seen a pick-up in volatility sellers (nice trade vs. last week). This is a different horizon that Professor Succo touches on but applicable nonetheless.
Does Snapper make a cameo? Not sure that today's his day as markets that are heavy (strong) all day tend to end that way. With that said, we are setting up for a sink or swim situation into Friday's payroll data. The posturing has already begun, I'm sure, so understand that some of the crosscurrents will be subjective. And, as always, we gotta allow for the notion that one of these dips ain't gonna stick.
Congrats to (yawn) Michael Welch for identifying Koalas as the only other animal with unique fingerprints. For that, he wins (another) kick ass Minyanville tee and official entry into the hobby of the month club. To all ye other Minyans, please feel free to support the critter of your choice by visiting Main Street and wearing 'em proud. As always, we'll be donating 10% of all proceeds from Harrison's Department Store to the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education. Noice!
Have a peaceful night.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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