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Random Thoughts


Emotion is the enemy when trading!


  • Look at a chart of the consumers (CMR) next to a chart of the cyclicals (CYC). That's what a rotation looks like.

  • You think you're busy? How would you like to be JT's or JJ's publicist right now?

  • Semiconductor supply has met each Snapper try.

  • Yes, the semi, cyclical and trannie stochastics are getting oversold but remember, this oscillator remained overbought for months.

  • The political drafting is intangible but impactful.

  • Crude reversed and is now down on the day.

  • Gold stocks have adopted a slightly better tone.

  • Boo is admittedly paranoid but can ya blame him? He's walking around like a mixture of Geoffrey Rush in Shine, Mel Gibson in Conspiracy Theory and Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind.

  • It's interesting (if nothing else) that General Electric (GE:NYSE) held its acne despite the cyclical slippage.

  • Mutual Fund cash levels are at 4.3%. And no, despite how the teletubbies might spin this, it's NOT bullish. Keep close tabs on the inflow data (AMG data released tomorrow night).

  • What would happen if there was a mutiny in Minyanville and the critters all turned on me? Which side do you think Fokker fall on? (There are only two sides to a mutiny!)

  • If you have a bad position and you're focusing on every tick, you're missing opportunities in other names. Sometimes, when I find myself in that situation, I cut the risk in half and look elsewhere for edges. Chances are, it'll be easier to recoup the loss when you're not so emotionally charged.

  • Let's call NDX 1480 initial resistance and NDX 1515 the following resistance.

  • Breadth continues to flash red.

  • The fear of Snapper is keeping the bears at bay.

  • Balsamic vinegar and maple syrup combine for a helluva salad dressing.

  • The Russell 2000 is underperforming. That's where a lot of the speculation has been centered.

  • Minyan Trivia: What animal (other than humans) has unique fingerprints? The first correct answer sent to wills a snazzy Minyanville tee!

  • Make sure you read the interview with Sir John Templeton

  • Rolling rotation? So far, yes. While tech is drekky (for now), the oil service issues, consumers (drugs) and defense are under accumulation. I'm not sure where retail falls in that dynamic as I "think" there's a fair amount of short covering in motion.

  • Professor McGuirk is adapting to new office hours and we're trying to identify a consistent time for his daily missives. Also, if all goes well, we'll have new technical professors in the hood by next week.

  • Define your time horizon before initiating risk.

  • I'll be in a midday meeting until (at least) 1:30. Fyi...
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