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Fear the Turtle!


Hey Snapper--get off your can and help me get this thing up!


Let my inspiration flow
in token lines suggesting rhythm
that will not forsake me
till my tale is told and done

(Grateful Dead)

Hold the emails Lonny Baxtor! Take a deep breath Gary Williams! Stop the madness Juan Dixon! My (newly) svelte brother Adam attended the University of Maryland and I was only too happy to offer that lay-up trivia question. Many of you got it--but Wendy Wanderman was had the quickest release and she scored a spankin' new Minyanville tee. Wasabi Wandy!

I'm sharpening my chopsticks as I prepare for my weekly protein-fest but, before I dive in, I wanted to get a quick post to ya. In my last column, I mentioned S&P 800 as a "potential" entry point for Hoofy and his bungee crew. To clarify, I'm not saying we get there today--I'm not even sure we'll do so on this leg of the meltage--my point is that IF we get there in the short-term, it'll likely set up a compelling risk/reward to the long side. Remember, the goal isn't to play every move, it's only to win the majority of moves we choose to play--and I 'think' that offers one.

As far as today's carnival is concerned, the thought that keeps flashing back and forth behind my eyelids is "markets that are heavy all day tend to end that way." There remain constructive elements nestled in the muck--the SOX is desert dry, the S&P (thus far) holds last Friday's low and the stochastics are coiled--but if Snapper doesn't get his mojo in motion soon, it's gonna be a long afternoon for the bulls.

With that said, the obvious question remains: What now? We've got Cisco and Poncho painting the tape tonight and, while their contemporaries have all dropped the ball lately, we must be on "spark alert" anyway. I remember a few quarters ago the mood was similarly drekky and nobody expected anything of substance out of Chambo. Of course, he proceed to ignite a sharp move higher. Can he do the same now? I don't have any 'secret' information on what he's gonna say--I just think it's important to synthesize the field position (oversold) into our thesis when unknowns loom.

Of course, THE catalyst out there will occur when Mr. Powell goes to Washington and all eyes and ears will be tuned into what he has to say. He's already told us he has no "smoking gun" but it's pretty clear he has something. The question (and I'm not telling you anything you don't know) is how much of a war premium is baked into the market and--perhaps more important to our strategy--what is the timing of our eventual move. My sense (unfortunately) is that war is's just a matter of when.

Before you start stressing about your next trade, take a moment and think about the families of our soldiers and what they're going through right now. You wanna talk stress? Imagine that the one person you love more than anybody else in the world is sitting on an army base in the Middle East awaiting the command to attack. THAT, my friends, is stress. This market is a cakewalk in comparison.

I hope this finds you well.

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