Spills and Thrills
By Todd Harrison Feb 04, 2003 10:30 am
I'm going out with Sklar tonight! He's such a player!
Did he doubt or did he try?
Answers aplenty in the bye and bye
Talk about your plenty, talk about your ills
One man gathers what another man spills
Well Hoofs...if you were schvitzing this morning you've gotta be completely soaked by now! With the major averages (S&P, NDX and BKX) flirting with Friday's lows, it's getting fairly hairy out there! Again, the Shim Sham thesis calls called for a failure at S&P 870 (got it), a hard sell-off (getting it?) and a subsequent stiff rip (to be determined). My question, and this is something that I am struggling with, is: When do I turn my lid around and fade the fade's fade?
Let's go to the video tape. Europe is melty (DAX down 4%), the internals are drekky (3:1 negative), the financials are horrid and I've eaten pizza four days in a row. On the plus side, the stochastics continue to coil, the Semi's act like they want to go higher, (near-term) sentiment is getting fairly negative and I went to the gym this morning. Toss in the plethora of unknowns (Powell's speech, Cisco's earnings) and, well, we've got a decision to make.
While I'm suspect of Snapper's mojo in the face of the flailing financials, I'm also VERY respectful of the Minx and her saucy ways. As such, and in an attempt to take continual baby steps, I'm going to set an S&P 850 stop loss on my bear appendage. If we continue to melt (very possible), I'll roll the stop down. If we Snap (possible, not probable), I've locked in a small schnitzel and defined my exposure. A'ight?
In a "this isn't really important but I wanted to share it" moment, I can't help but giggle when I think about how I played AIG from the short side most of last year--but have no position now. I'm not looking back (that's not allowed) but it's funny, right? The meaty trades always have a way of taunting you on the way out the door!
In quick Minyanville news, I'm quite conscious that you've ponied up some hard earned cash for the customs office and, as such, I haven't "pushed" the mavens of Main Street. Still, for those of you who haven't taken a stroll through the stores, it's worth a look. I'm not "sellin" ya, cookie...just being a good neighbor.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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