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Random Thoughts


Gizoogle is off the hizzle!

  • Fa-Shnizzle!

  • My two takeaways from Dubya's speech? Social security reform is NOT this year's business (will have a tough time gaining support) and Iran and Syria are clearly on his radar.

  • Perspective.

  • Market internals (aka-our single best intraday tell) are pointing due south.

  • "Historically, there has been a negative correlation between the price movement of stocks and commodities. On any chart of bull markets in stocks and commodities, they are parallel lines going in separate directions. Commodities were hot in the period between 1906 and 1923, when stocks went nowhere - and the reverse was the case during the Roaring Twenties. Many of us still remember the hot commodities - and cold stocks - of the 1970s. Quite the opposite was the case during the 1980s and 1990s. Now the cycle is turning in favor of commodities. Studies have confirmed this negative correlation between stocks and stuff." - Jim Rogers, "Hot Commodities" (p.20)

  • Squeeze me Seymour!

  • "Mountain lions don't smoke marijuana."

  • Bernie, Spiders and you.

  • First there was an internet bubble. Now we're edging through a real estate bubble. I'm gonna go out on a limb and offer that "internet real estate" will be the next bubble to form on the horizon. Why? Convergence--Madison Avenue needs to funnel their ad budgets into new mediums as traditional channels dissipate. We've already seen the uptick in internet advertising (Google) but it has room to grow. In fact...

  • "When L. Gordon Crovitz, the president of Dow Jones & Company's electronic publishing division, sat down last spring to assemble a three-year strategic plan, one of the things he foresaw was a potentially costly gap about to open. If the demand for online advertising continued to grow, Dow Jones's Web sites, including The Wall Street Journal Online, would not provide enough page views for all the online ads the company could sell." --Eric Dash, The New York Times, January 24, 2005, on discussing the recent acquisition of

  • BKX 102--the 50-day and former support--is also a key this morning as the piggies will dictate which critter fries up the bacon (and brings it home in a pan).

  • My Cheri Amore...

  • While there are positives nestled in today's muck (Google (GOOG), brokers (XBD), attitude), the "hands over eyes" analysis isn't bovine friendly. As it stands, we've rallied to multiple equity resistance levels with (2:1) negative breadth and a stronger dollar. That can change, obviously, but we need to remain respectful of the hints being offered.

  • For those who missed this giggly missive on yesterday's Buzz, it's a fine read.

  • Super Sunday Minyanfest!

  • "The OSX chart looks more like uptrend channel (at the top now) vs. a breaking out pattern. You could have made the same argument (OSX breaking out) back in November but it quickly corrected. This sector is very strong and dangerous to short (other than for a trade) but we are at the top of a well developed channel and should see a pull-back. Minyan Mark Smaldon" MMS-Good point and, as always, your horizon will dictate your strategy.

  • That's crazy!

  • Happy birthday mom and thank you for always being the first one there in good times and bad.

  • Rude crude is down today. While that 'should' be bullish, the Texas tea has been trading more like a pure commodity (ie-gold) than an input price. Has perception shifted to viewing downticks in oil as being indicative of deflation?

  • The VXO bounced directly on the 8-year lows (+5%).

  • The Iron Horse continues to set the economic and fixed income standard.

  • Please note that the NDX has filled its downside gap (1500).

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