Minyan Mailbag -NYC Real Estate
Note: Our goal in Minyanville is to remove intimidation from the financial markets and encourage an interactive dialogue among the Minyanship. We share this next discussion with that very intent.
New thesis. There is no "native" real estate bubble. Looking back at random in a New York magazine from this summer it became clear what is going on. Of the buyers this summer, over 15% alone were Russian. A significant portion from the UK or EU countries.
So that's where foreign flows are coming from bro. For these folks with either new found wealth or a very strong currency buying NYC real estate is a good hedge and a relative bargain. If you could buy a 2 million dollar home for 1.3 million, you would wouldn't you?
The trick of course is what happens in a correction. Most likely for these folks that would come with a currency correction in their favor, the U.S. dollar appreciates while prices drop leaving them net/net in ok shape. Essentially neutral. Waiting out any such correction they've likely bagged a good bargain.
The impact for locals of course is higher than normal prices due to this demand. I wondered how NYC was producing so many millionaires locally with a relatively moribund economy. Turns out we are importing them.
Minyan Bryan McCormick
Interesting perspective and thanks, as always, for taking the time to share.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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