You're so predictable Toddo!
The 10am economic releases are marginally better, thank you very much, and the Minx has taken a jog to the upside. While I respect the potential for a psychological "recovery" shift, I don't sense that it starts right here, right now. As such, and consistent with my earlier post, I'm going to slip one leg into my metaphorical bear costume (25% conviction on the short side). Let's use...S&P 864 as a reference point on that appendage.
Am I jumping the gun (no pun intended)? Possibly...whenever you've got stochastics twisting on the buy side (as they've been doing), the potential for a sharp rally always exists. Still, it's my feeling that there will be pockets of concern into (or after) Powell's big speech as the reality of war seeps further into the market's collective mindset. As such, I continue to look for levels of entry on the short side.
Walking through our trading tells, the financials are attempting to find firm footing, the Semis are approaching resistance (watch SOX 280), the internals remain marginally positive (better in the S's) and Greg R.N is schvitzing hard. Why? Because my systems keep crashing and that's the fastest way to Minyan purgatory! Hey Fokker--do you have the munchies this morning?!? What gives?
As I write, I'm seeing some macro hedgies turn to cover (QQQ) and the games have officially begun. Remember, it's not necessary to play every move, it's only necessary to have a high win percentage on the moves you choose to play. For some, that means gaming this upside schnitzel. For others, it means using price to your advantage and looking for entry points the other way. The only right answer, naturally, is the one that acts as an extension of your thought process and allows you to trade within your means.
Good luck, friends...and hit 'em where they aint!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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