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Dress Rehearsal

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You're so predictable Toddo!

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The 10am economic releases are marginally better, thank you very much, and the Minx has taken a jog to the upside. While I respect the potential for a psychological "recovery" shift, I don't sense that it starts right here, right now. As such, and consistent with my earlier post, I'm going to slip one leg into my metaphorical bear costume (25% conviction on the short side). Let's use...S&P 864 as a reference point on that appendage.

Am I jumping the gun (no pun intended)? Possibly...whenever you've got stochastics twisting on the buy side (as they've been doing), the potential for a sharp rally always exists. Still, it's my feeling that there will be pockets of concern into (or after) Powell's big speech as the reality of war seeps further into the market's collective mindset. As such, I continue to look for levels of entry on the short side.

Walking through our trading tells, the financials are attempting to find firm footing, the Semis are approaching resistance (watch SOX 280), the internals remain marginally positive (better in the S's) and Greg R.N is schvitzing hard. Why? Because my systems keep crashing and that's the fastest way to Minyan purgatory! Hey Fokker--do you have the munchies this morning?!? What gives?

As I write, I'm seeing some macro hedgies turn to cover (QQQ) and the games have officially begun. Remember, it's not necessary to play every move, it's only necessary to have a high win percentage on the moves you choose to play. For some, that means gaming this upside schnitzel. For others, it means using price to your advantage and looking for entry points the other way. The only right answer, naturally, is the one that acts as an extension of your thought process and allows you to trade within your means.

Good luck, friends...and hit 'em where they aint!

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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