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Henley's Heroes

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I've gotta tell you--S&P 870 scares the sprinkles out of me!

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O' beautiful, for spacious skies
But now those skies are threatening
They're beating plowshares into swords
For this tired old man that we elected king


(Don Henley)

It's a beautiful morning in Minyanville and the critters are jazzed up and rarin' to go. The requisite two-day respite served it's purpose and the Menagerie, after having a weekend to reflect on the important things in life, enter today's session with perspective and lucidity . Let's take a walk and see what's shaking on this fine February day.

Ericsson, the world's largest maker of mobile phone networks, reported "earnings" this morning and the stock has gotten clipped for 14%. In verbiage that echoed the recent views of their stateside counterparts, their chieftain opined that they "don't see any visible signs of industry recovery." Europe is thus far shrugging off the report (there is a bullish catalyst in the FTSE that's superseding this event) but, in our ever-evolving fundamental picture, this is yet another white flag by an industry leader.

In early morning news, Pru upgraded LLY and punted the semicaps (AMAT in particular), Lehman upped RFMD, Morgan cut NVDA numbers, JP Morgan upgraded CVS, Piper upgraded EDS and UBS Warburg upgrade MO. Also, please remember that Monsieur Beeks will be swinging by at 10am with construction spending (exp. .4%) and the ISM manufacturing number (exp. 54, prices paid 57).

Thomas Weisel kicks off their tech fete today and, among others, we'll hear from (among others) CSC, QLGC, NVDA, SAP, LMT, SEBL, TER, BEAS and MU. Across town, Lehman will begin their industrial conference (RTN, NOC, BLL) and UBS Warburg will host their healthcare conference. Hey Elmo--with all those doctors, maybe we'll find a good therapist for you and J.B!

Technical levels remain largely unchanged. The S&P resistance lies overhead at 870 and initial support comes into play at 845-850. If you draw a line across the bottom of the December price points, you'll see where I come up with this trendline. If we break that zone, next support is the October lows. In the NDX, 1010ish is a minor trendline resistance while 1075-1100 is the next barrier after that (trendline/January highs). On the downside, 980ish is the first trendline support and 950 (September/October resistance) is THE support. If that doesn't hold, cookie, NDX 800 is a realistic target.

Tells today will include Citigroup (as a BKX proxy--confirmed a "break" Friday at 34 but firmed up in the afternoon), CSCO (in front of tomorrow's earnings), the SOX (former support (280) is now resistance), the retailers (consumer), the autos (vehicles sales out today) and Microsoft (insider window has been open (me thinks)...not sure if it still is).

That's about it from my perch thus far this morning. There are bound to be some Minyan glitches as we edge our way through the passport solution so I'd like to thank you in advance for your patience. We've been working hard to ensure a seamless transition but please don't hesitate to contact us should any issues arise. As you know, we aim to please.

See you after the opening.

RH, WM, MA, DB, KC, LC, IR

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