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Random Thoughts


Who you callin' a mole?

  • After stepping off this morning's red eye--and having thwarted a somewhat disturbing spoon attempt by the fellow in seat 11A--I cast my eyes across my eight screens. After my brief stray away from the fray--deep diving venues for our upcoming MIM3 soiree--I offer some broad brush, toe dippin' sniffage:

    • Yesterday featured some N's over S's action. Not a shocker, I suppose, and perhaps we'll see some further ketchup.
    • Boo played whack-a-mole at S&P 1295ish yesterday, beating down acne anticipators while the stochastics twist overbought.
    • Slippage in the metal and energy complexes (as I begin to dust off my long side laundry list).
    • Test and re-test by Pete and repeat? CRB 320 , the multiyear trendline and 200-day support-is back in focus after yesterday's commodity oddities.
    • We continue to see "off board" trades predicated on the outperformance of big caps over small caps, which is typical in the late (extra?) innings of a FOMC tightening cycle.

  • So you know and if ya'll care, I'm looking at levels near $50ish to re-establish some exposure in Newmont Mining. That's not advice, that's just my own personal wake up call.

  • Some guys will do just about anything to avoid stepping into a Honeydew partnership!

  • Woof! According to data from Investors Intelligence, the first week of February showed 419 buying climaxes. That number exceeded the 383 buying climaxes at the market peak in early August 2005. A buying climax takes place when a stock makes a 12-month high, but closes the week with a loss. They are a sign of distribution and indicate that stocks are moving from...

  • In Flow's Diner yesterday, we saw size buyers of SMH (semiconductor holders) puts (note the textbook dandruff below $37), a seller of Pfizer calls, a buyer of Micron puts, Verizon call buyers and Elan put buyers. And tell 'em the best part Randolph! Duke & Duke made the commission!

  • On the Housekeeping side, President Fish and I will be hosting a town hall chat at Syracuse University the evening of Monday, March 6th. All area Minyans are welcome although, as it stands, we have no plans to put fizzies in the swimming pool.

  • Who knew that Greg Weldon played D-1 hoops? He's been filling me in on his war stories against Roosevelt Bouie and Larry Nance. It's all starting to make sense now as I reflect on our snazzy MIM2 championship victory over Succo's softball squad. And yes, this year's rubber match is for all the marbles.

  • Three big picture thoughts that I have tremendous clarity on.

    • Energy will overtake the financials as top weighting in the S&P.
    • Energy and metals will massively outperform tech and financials if given enough time to play through.
    • Either the dollar must devalue or asset classes must deflate. They're not mutually exclusive on the downside but they're seemingly independent on the upside. (read: both could fall but I doubt both can rally in synch).

  • And finally, I don't bring up failing fathers to be a Debbie Downer. Quite the contrary. Last week, my good buddy Fokker said goodbye to his dad, Minyan Raghu sat aside his pops in ICU, Minyan Matty Ford buried the father of his best friend and I know several others who are sifting through similar sadness. I often say that wisdom is bred as a function of pain but those are just words--empty words--until you go through it yourself. It should never take something bad to make you realize you've got it good so, as we ready to unleash the hounds on this turnaround Tuesday, let's take a moment of mindfulness and remember why we play.

  • Good luck today.

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Position in financials
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