Good luck Minyans--hit 'em hard!
A horse is a horse, of course of course
And no one can talk to a horse, of course
That is, of course, is unless the horse
Is the famous Mr. Ed.
Alright, I admit it--I couldn't help myself. I NEVER play the ponies, but when a fellow Minyan told me that a horse named "Minaville" was going off at 15:1 at Aqueduct, I had to do it! I had Fokker run down to OTB and put $500 on the long shot with the clear instructions that if our number hit, we would donate the pot to our charitable cause. Alas, our horsie showed (came in third) and we missed our chance at equestrian excellence. Doh!
Hopefully, we'll have some better luck handicapping the Minx--at least we're on a familiar track here! The pace of the action (pun intended) has slowed somewhat as we head into the home stretch but, for a second day in a row, the underlying tone of the tape is constructive. Now, all we've got to do is ascertain if this is a prelude to an upside kiss or the most complacent tape we've ever seen.
The semis encapsulate our current dilemma. Every hedge fund in the world is buying these things in front of Morgan's confab next week and expecting good news. Will it be a self-fulfilling prophecy that allows the SOX to finally get through 300 or will the trader types sell on the news and log jam the exits? Perception will likely dictate reality and to the victor will go the spoils.
Speaking of the conference, Monday's schedule will include ICST, BRCM, KLAC, AMD, AMAT, DELL, ALTR, SMTC, IM and WDC (among others). We'll also hear from Beek's (I to the ISM), there's a BEAS analyst meeting, Bear media conference (MGM, CCU, FOX, USAI, VIA, GMH) and the Lehman Healthcare check-up. There will likely be 750 geopolitical crosscurrents that will make our jobs joyous and giggly. Wasabi!
On the technical front, today's action did little to resolve the great debate although the objective observer would argue that the tape acts dry. The bears, on the other hand, will point to the complacency (VIX), flow (size call buyers), resistance (until proven otherwise), uncertainty (no world peace yet) and extended stochastics (SOX, GE).
I came into today with a leg in my bear costume, added another leg on the morning liftage and now I'm faced with a decision as we waffle around unchanged levels. As you know, I've been playing somewhat smaller in this environment and I always strive to make my posture an extension of my thought process. As such, and in the interest of steadfast discipline, I must remove the extra appendage and hop home (again) with one furry leg.
It's been a zig-zaggy week with a little something for everyone and if you overtraded, you're likely bummin' right now. OK--lesson learned and now you know. We'll move forward with new lessons in tow and become better traders for it. Remember, there's a huge difference between learning from the past and living in it.
I continue to have a "bad" feeling about this tape but if I've learned anything, it's that I know enough to know that I know truly nothing! I say that with my tounge firmly sticking in my cheek but the message is important. Nobody is bigger than the market and if you don't respect the process and become a student of the game, you'll get spanked harder than Martin during his kinky weekend follies.
NOW--I'm gonna hop and ready myself for what promises to be an extreme flurry on the closing bell. Our kick-ass one-of-a-kind charity auction is down to the final wire and you can cut the tension with a knife. Who's gonna walk off with the day in Minyanville? Who's gonna party hardy with the coolest critters around? Who's gonna get that back massage from Fokker as they're digesting a delicious sushi lunch? You won't have to wait long for the answer, my friends, I'll be posting the results after the close--stay tuned!
Good luck into the closing bell.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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