Do they hate me because I'm good looking? I don't get it!
Alright--I officially have smoke coming out of my ears now. Wednesday, we discussed the improbability of back to back Snappers. Yesterday, we discussed the improbability of back to back bear traps. Now, with yesterday's bear scare (up-down-up) fresh in our minds, is it too cute to expect a snapback rally now? Holy Toledo--my Minyans minyan's therapist's shrink needs some Xanax! Chop chop!
OK--whatda we got? WMT is down (retail tell), SYMC is the disaster du jour (Nazz sentiment), the cyclicals are starting to act heavy (BA, MMM, ect.), the breadth is still constructive (but starting to balance), crude reversed lower (again), the dollar is slippy, the overhead resistance remains (BKX, SPX, WMT, C) and virtually every order I saw this morning was either buying calls or selling puts (bearish). What's a Toddo to do?
Truth is, outside of my incremental adds (to the short side) this morning, I haven't overtraded today. I was surely schvitzing when we were tickling the upside and I'm conscious that the bulls still have plenty of time to giggle. Into this minispill, I've made a small put sale (discipline) to appease the trading gods and now I'll watch. I will say that this week has been one of the goofier roller coasters I've been on in a while. I was "smart" Monday and Wednesday and "dumb" Tuesday and Thursday--and freaky Friday still hasn't decided what she wants to do with me.
I was just on the phone with Snoop Tone--he was discussing the virtues of Woodrow Wilson for some reason--and I asked him what he thought of me slipping that leg back out of the bear costume. He made the (salient) point that there's a ton of complacency out there--something we saw via the flow this morning and reinforced by the action in the volatility measures (VIX, VXN). As such, I'm gonna count to ten and will look to potentially roll the stop down on that second appendage (discipline).
For all of you chart watchers, please note that the S&P 28-day trendline (the other one) is starting to come into play on the downside. There's actually two trendlines--this is the first--I just wanted to make sure it's on your radar, Radar.
In auction land, Geoff's still king at $15,500--with three hours to go! It's for the kids, Minyans, it's for the kids!
I'll be back.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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