A Run for our Money
Hey Geoff--are you ready for the critters?!?
Hard times spreading just like the flu
Watch out homeboy, don't let it catch you
P-p-prices go up, don't let your pocket go down
When you got short money you're stuck on the ground
This has been one nutty week! Zig zaggin' back and forth, up and down, long and short, in and out and where do we stand? Almost exactly where we began the week! Wierd, right? All of this is enough to make a Minyan dizzy but if you take a step back, and a deep breath, you'll find us right back where we started from. Man, that's a lot of schvitz of spinning wheels!
A couple of thoughts as we find our way through our day. First, the BKX is struggling with resistance at 725 (we know that) but IF (big if) it can push through (to the upside), it would confirm a "W" formation in the bank index. This is a fairly bullish pattern and, while it hasn't confirmed, it's something to watch as we walk the path. A similar situation exists over in semi-land. We've discussed the stochastic sell signal and trendline resistance but IF (big if) it can charlie garner jig through SOX 300, it warrants respect (it's failed there a buncha times).
These are some of the reasons I want to operate with a stop-loss level on my bear costume. While my risk is defined (via options), there's no excuse for letting conviction morph into hope. I still don't like the bottom we've seen, I still feel THE rally has to start much lower and I still don't feel that war is good (for equities at these levels). Throughout it all, I'm still humble enough to know that I'll be wrong at times and when that happens, I'm willing to trip but I don't want to fall.
I've got 28-day gips (charts) up for the NDX and S&P and there are trendlines on both sides of the action (we're tickling the topsides now). The longer we sit here with the breadth strong, the better the chance for an upside resolution. I don't make the rules, my friends, I only live by them. I've said it before and I'll say it again--good traders know how to make money and great traders know how to take a loss. If I'm stopped out, we'll move to the sidelines and bowl naked this weekend.
As I write, I'm seeing QQQ call buyers 10,000 at a clip and I'm finding myself shaking my head and smiling. Why? Because my gut is that this isn't gonna end pretty...and I get the sneaking suspician that I'm gonna get stopped out before my trade kicks in. Murphy's Minxy adaptation of the age old law!
Sir Geoff continues to stand atop the leaderboard with his wonderfully generous bid of $15,500 for a day in Minyanville. I've had the distinct honor of meeting Jacob and he's a super-duper kid! I'm also quite excited for the children that will benefit from the Ruby Foundation--everytime I write or speak about this casuse, I think of my grandfather. That, my friends, is your gift to me.
4 1/2 hours left in the auction!
Fare ye well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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