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Random Thoughts

By

Across the board and across the globe, the bears are growling as they awake from their deep slumber.

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  • The Minx slinks through session lows as Hoofy hangs up by his toes. It sure is ugly out there--a perfect storm of catalysts, technical breaks, geopolitical angst, blood, locusts, vermin, you name it and we've got it. Across the board and across the globe, the bears are growling as they awake from their deep slumber.

  • Shabbat Shalom, HEY! Shabbat Shalom, HEY! Mazel Tov, VXO--you've reached the age of maturity (13) for the first time since September. The volatility index is up a cool 20% today, which might seem like a lot. That is, of course, if you pull back the lens and look at the last eight years.

  • Despite signs of fright (VXO +20%), the general mood on the Street still seems sanguine. To be fair, I don't know if this is a simple correction or the beginning of the big picture blues but I would have a lot more confidence in the upside if more folks expected the downside. As it stands, we could still be in denial mode (before migration and panic set in).

  • NYSE "downvolume/upvolume" a staggering 26:1. That's nuttier than Austin Powers' coffee!

  • The real question here is why would she want to go back?

  • I opined last summer, in one of my many missives, the bullet below. Again, there is no way to know if it's come home to roost but it's within the spectrum of possibility that it has. The weighting of that assigned probability will dictate your relative approach to the financial markets.

  • "The conundrum we collectively face is that, like it or not, the US is dependent on China and India for global growth. If either of these two gorillas sneeze, that's when The Phantom of Deflation will arrive. Globalization--and its evil twin, Nationalization--are the continual undercurrents that shape the global tide. It's not actionable, per se, but it's inevitable and omnipresent. And it's most certainly in the back of Ben Bernanke's mind."

  • Toga, Toga!

  • The S&P touched the 50-day for the first time since last July. That was an an intuitive place for a Snapper attempt and, true to form, the dizzy bulls are trying to find some footing.

  • "How do you know you are in an asset based economy? Well, when consumer confidence is 100% correlated to stocks. See the chart here of the SPX versus consumer confidence. A picture tells 1000 words." Professor Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • The definition of an investment should never be a trade gone awry.

  • Buck? Bob? Buck? Bob? Keep an eye on Texas Tea (+65 bips) and the yellow metal as they're trying to buck the trend and bob higher in the crimson tide.

  • Is the USD/JPY FX relationship a "tell" for equity markets? I don't know but it's now on my radar thanks to Minyan Mark Bloudek.

  • Remember that Google gap? It's right here, right now, yawning for attention.

  • Wanna nother level? I know you do! Toss HGX 240 on your screens as O-Dog and the Homies try to make a stand.

  • As far as my SunMicro and Goldenstar positions? I'm a buyer on dips rather than a seller on blips. I've got some good gamma against that risk (financial puts) so I've got a bit of financial latitude.

  • I think I heard someone on financial television opine earlier that the market is wrong. If I've learned anything over the last 16 years while trading, it's that the market is never wrong.

  • Minyan Mailbag

    Toddo,

    Looking at the volume in Merrill Lynch (MER), I see back to back 10 mln+ share days? So far the exit appears orderly, but an important question is why is there so much supply? I don't see back to back 10 mln+ share days during the past year. This is the first financial that appears to be broken.

    -Minyan Mark

    Minyan Mark,

    Nice eyes as this fits nicely with Snoop Tony Dwyer's Buzz yesterday. I've attached a chart of Merrill for those watching at home. $85 appears to be the first discernible support and, if this is indeed a financial tell, which in turn is a market tell, it should be on our collective radar.

    -Toddo

  • And finally, more things that scare Minyan G-Huhn…

    • Sharks with fricken' laser beams attached to their heads.

    • Rumors that Israel is quietly asking permission to use US air space to carry out unspecified military action.

    • China's reaction to the Government's use of the "Bubble" phrase and the Global reaction. If we are whippy now, what happens to the Minx when rumor becomes fact?

    • The Sub Prime Playahs locking the barn door after the horse has bolted.

    • Prof Bennet's crystal clear crystal ball...

    • Put volume in the IWM (Russell 2000).

    • Police Squad's Frank Drebbin's market commentary this morning "It's not too late to fill out those Organ Donor cards."

    • That Gordon Gecko was right...."Money moves from one perception to another."

  • And finally-finally-a word from our author…

    In what can only be described as serendipitous timing, I'll be out of pocket tomorrow as I jet west to deliver the keynote at TD-Ameritrade's Disney APEX Live Super-Soiree. I'm on the red eye home tomorrow night and should be back in the saddle by Thursday's opening bell. I wish you well in your endeavors, Minyans, and peace upon your journey.


R.P.

position in gss, sunw, metals, financial

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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