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Minxy Monday Random Thoughts

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Stay humble...

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  • We power up the weekly pup to find a tale of two tapes. The S&P, after burrowing through the '06 downtrend line, has her sites set on 1295, multiyear highs which most certainly have stops set somewhere on the other side.

  • The tech-laden NDX, leaders then laggards as '06 goes, continues to dabble with dandruff as it traces out some textbook head and shoulders. Two sectors. Two patterns. Two sets of tea leaves. Much like we've seen the chasm close a bit between big caps and small caps, we could see similar stuff as the S's and N's define their trends.

  • Don't you think Marshall Fields and Mrs. Fields would have made a perfect couple?

  • Stay humble or the market will do it for you. I offer that thought as I watch the financials giggle near all-time highs despite 1) mounting evidence that they should be anywhere but and 2) the fact that I've felt this way for quite some time.

  • I'm out of the 'Ville today as I finish up an MIM3 site visit. I'm itching to spill the beans but I've been told that I would be dipped in honey and tied to a tree if I jumped the gun. Suffice to say that it'll be held August 10-13 and we've already gotten RVSP's from most all of the Minyan professors and notable folks such as Jeff Saut, Steve Shobin and Michael Santoli. By the way, Mike, heckuva job writing the "keynote" for Barron's this week. Excellent vibage.

  • Roger Ferguson, the only Democrat on the Federal Reserve board, quietly resigned last week saying that he wanted to smooth the Elmer to Boom Boom transition. Rumors that he had dislocated his jaw bone are thus far unconfirmed.

  • On the housekeeping front, Minyanville is a proud sponsor of the Jacob's Cure Bowling event on Sunday, March 5th at Chelsea Piers in NYC. Any interested Minyans looking to get involved in this worthy cause can contact us for more information. President Fish and I will then hop a flight to our alma mata and host a Town Hall Chat at SyracuseUniversity on Monday, March 6th. It's our first trip back to the hill since we roomed together back in the day. When men were men and sheep were nervous.

  • Question I Really Wanna Know: If the markets are near five year highs in the face of nosty Iraq news, a looming Iran fuse, massive debt, foreign dependency, evolving stagflation and presidential approval ratings unseen since the Nixon era, what does that say about the moxie of the underlying bid?

  • Or is the definition of disconnect between perception and reality that we so often discuss capturing?

  • It's taken me many years and alotta internal dialogue but I've arrived at a place when I accept--and not just say--that opportunities are made up easier than losses. I firmly believe that capital preservation mindset and "proactive patience" will distinguish performance in the years ahead. Alas, the ability not to trade will prove to be as valuable as trading ability.

  • It's worth noting--although I didn't do it last week--that the Investor's Intelligence weekly survey is actually "bovine abating" in the face of new highs. That's an incremental (albeit anecdotal) positive for the Matador Crowd.

  • Tells du jour include our oft-mentioned levels (including BKX 106.5, GE $32.5, Citi $48, IBM 82), market breadth (single best intraday tell), leadership (XBD, SOX, Russell, Trannies) and you (discipline over conviction).

  • Good luck Minyans and I'll see you with red eyes tomorrow morning.


    R.P.
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Positions in financials, IBM
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