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Bull Shot!

By

You're diggin' my breadth, aren't ya?

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"I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."

--Michael Jordan



There are times I feel like I should have floppy feet, a big red nose and a car full of carnies (circus folk, nomads really...they've got small hands and smell like cabbage). I mean--seriously Fokker--the juggling these days is out of hand! I've got Boo on my right shoulder telling me to be a man, Hoofy on my left begging me for respect and Daisy prancing in front of my desk flashing me leg! How the heck am I supposed to focus with that going on?

The breadth is, by far, the most bullish thing on my screens and I keep finding myself checking that with every blip and dip we get. It's a stark contrast with what we've seen and it must be noted regardless of posture. That, coupled with the fact that back to back bull traps may be too scripted, are the reasons Boo should be careful (although I will say, IF we start to fail, it's gonna be fugly).

On the flip side, the tape continues to waffle near resistance and, until that's resolved, the burden of proof falls on Hoofy's shoulders. I've switched to a more reliable S&P 21 day chart to keep me company and the trendline rests around 846ish. I'm gonna use that as a stop level on some exposure although, admittedly, there's a part of me that feels the S's will struggle all the way up to S&P 870. It's a function of style, really, and while my "gut" continues to be that THE rally has to start from lower levels, I'm not gonna blindly build exposure on the way up (too risky).

The reversal in crude is surely a boon to sentiment and that helps on the margin. That, coupled with the marginal dollar strength and the waxing in gold are helping equities on a macro basis. Still, something doesn't smell right to me--I can't quite put my finger on it yet. The issue, as always, is one of timing and while our goal is to use price to our advantage, we've got to balance that with our other trading variables (levels, tells, metrics, ect).

As it stands, the bear costume is on both legs and I've got my hands full with administrative issues regarding my fund. It's coolio--I'm not complaining--I'm just explaining that I'm spread a bit thin right now and my first obligation will always be to my investors. It's the right thing to do and, if you haven't picked it up by now, I pride myself on trying to do the right thing.

Keep half an eye on those banks. If the futures lift and the BKX doesn't participate, that would be a flag. The bulls know how important the BKX 700 level is on a technical basis and it wasn't going down without a fight. It's just another thing to watch as we take our journey one step at a time.

So that's about it my friends--Fokker ran an errand and in the process, forgot to order lunch. It figures, right? The first day that I'm feeling better in a week and anxious to eat, and the kid fumbles both meals of the day. Maybe tomorrow, he'll trade, he'll write, he'll talk to investors, he'll set up our brokerage relationship, he'll get the systems squared away and I'LL order the food? Yeah baby--that's what I'm talking about!

As always, I hope this finds you well.

position in s&p

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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