Leggo my Eggo!
All we are is dust in the wind, dude!
--Ted 'Theodore' Logan
So, here we are...again. The equity market is higher, the shorts are schvitzing, the fear of missing is palpable, the optimists are encouraged, Fokker is bumming cause I'm being "harsh" and Boo is running around my office screaming "turn the machines back on!" I've got two things to say. First, you've yet to see harsh, Florence, so don't waste your best mopes yet. Second, take a chill Boo, there's alotta trading left to do today and I need you to stay sharp.
I'm uber-respectful of the breadth and the 2% jig in the banks. I'm also quite aware that an emotionally charged market has a way of exacerbating the price action (both ways). Finally, I'm conscious of the fact that, eventually, one of these rallies has the potential to "stick" and really plant the seed of hope in the mindset of the masses.
Now, with all that said, I still don't "buy it." Yes, the fact that I'm not seeing the real buyers may be a moot point (we know the buyers are higher). Still, I don't like the low we put in and until there's a firmer foundation in place, I'm suspect of the sustainability of this rally. Would I prefer there to be more hope in the tape? Yes--that's one of the main reasons I'm not being more aggressive. The emotional types haven't bitten on the forbidden fruit yet and, as such, there may be a bit more to go on this lift.
With that said, and as we edge towards S&P 846-850-855 (resistance), I'm going to humbly slip another leg into my metaphorical bear costume (makes 50% conviction on the short side). I understand that I might be a tad early (shocker) but I aim to make this column an extension of my thought process and, well, now it is. With the banks eyeing resistance at BKX 725, Wal-Mart a whisper kiss away from resistance, oil continuing to ramp and shorts having covered a chunk of exposure, I can justify the appendage.
More importantly, we've yet to receive any new bids on our charity auction and I wanted to put it out there again. It's for the kids, Minyans, it's for the kids.
I'll be back.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Daily Recap Newsletter