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The Village Critters


Ok Saddam--we believe you!


Macho, macho bear
I've got to be, a macho bear
Macho, macho bear (yeah, yeah)
I've got to be a macho!

(The Village People)

The incomparable Fokker, who this morning managed to fumble the first real breakfast order in a week, just asked me what I was I was thinking. I dryly said to the Minyan-in-training that I'm a seller higher and a buyer lower. He looked at me with a blank stare for a moment and then slowly shook his head up and down. As it stands, I'm having Martin come over later to train the young lad!

I'd love to be more aggressive and swing the big risk bat--but that would be inconsistent with my current thought process. I've got one leg in my bear costume, a handful of defined risk downside paper and a nothing but time (and premium!) In other words, I'm not pressing here--it's dicey in the near term and I wanna keep plenty of dry powder.

After the recent weakness, the first test lower was/is intuitive--now the real games begin. The most impressive element of the early action was the S&P breadth and it's holding at 3:2 winners/losers despite the testage. My main sector tells (SOX, BKX), however, are starting to wilt in the morning sunshine. So you know, I'm watching Citigroup, Wal-Mart, Dell, GE and MSFT as individual stock tells as well.

New home sales just hit the wire and they came in light. This offsets the Durable goods somewhat but, net/net, I gotta think the aggregate economic data today was a marginal uptick. Enough to turn the tape in and of itself? I'm sure the talking heads will use it as an excuse if we rally--but there are different crosscurrents affecting the tape today. Hang on to you hat and remember to breathe.

I'll be back.

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