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Slippery When Wet


The VIX is basically flat? Where's the fear?!?


An angel's smile is what you sell
You promised me heaven, then put me through hell
Chains of love got a hold on me
When passion's a prison, you can't break free

(Bon Jovi)

Holy Joisy! Bon Jovi? Why the heck not--our neighbors on the turnpike get a bum rap! I mean, at the risk of completely blowing my cover, I was born in Newark! And no--before you get the question out of your mouth--I don't know what exit it was!

The Snapper attempt was (thus far) short lived and the thought I failed to share seems like the path of least resistance. I want to be clear--I don't WANT the market lower, per se--I know that many a bank account is getting eradicated in this mess. The tape will do what it wants, however, and all WE can do, as Minyans, is humbly hold on and go for the ride.

A couple of oberservations from the front. The foreign selling I alluded to earlier seems to be more than an isolated incident as I've picked it up on a couple of fronts. I suppose the astute trader could surmise that via the weakness in the dollar but "sharp as a marble" Toddo likes to "see" the flow. I can't tell you if it'll continue, but it surely is in motion today.

The banks, meanwhile, are fluttering around the duct tape lows which, by the way, mean the lows we made on February 13th (when people we're freaking out and buying duct tape). Sometimes things flow from my mind to the screen so fast, I forget that many of you aren't already in my head! Anyway, those lows matter because (bullish) technicians wanna see a "higher low" in place. A "lower low" in the financials is huge because they're such an important leading indicator for the S&P. Couple that with the stochastic "hooks" (bearish) in the SOX, the dicey levels overseas and the lack of a convincing low in our market and, well, that's why I've been trading from the short side.

Why haven't I been more aggressive and suited up further? Because in this market, cookie, shooters are for after work! With headline risk what it is and traders as reactive as they are (see yesterday), I'm content with trying to hit for average rather than swinging for the fences. There are opportunities nestled in this muck, Mon Frere, you've just got to be patient, pick your spots and maintain discipline.

I've got an investor meeting after the close and, as such, this will likely be my final missive of the session. So you know and just so I've officially said it, my primary responsibility will always be to my investors and, when forced to make a decision, I will always focus on the fund first. I think (hope) you know by now that I genuinely care for my fellow Minyans and will do everything in my power to make your path easier to travel.

With regards to the charity auction, My favorite Buc's fan continues to top the leader board with a most generous bid of $12,000 for a day in Minyanville. These are extremely tight times and don't think I don't know that. This is a humbling figure but, as the proceeds will benefit the Ruby Foundation for Children's Education and Jacob's Cure, we will continue the auction through Friday. Thank you to all who continue to give something back!

That's about it, Minyans, and barring a monster move, I'm gonna hop home with that leg in my bear costume. I sincerely hope you're all managing this mess and your keeping your priorities in tact. I've gotta jump and focus on my end of day risk, so fare ye well and good luck into the close.

Have a peaceful night.

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