Where's Eagles Fly
Remember, the goal is to use prices to your advantage.
There's talk on the street, it sounds so familiar.
Great expectations, everybody's watching you.
People you meet they all seem to know you,
even your old friends treat you like you're something new.
This business is funny. During the initial slippage, I saw it, you saw it, we ALL saw it--the tape wanted to try the upside. As I sat here with a scrunched up nose and a foot in my bear costume, I had a sudden rush of anxiousness. Just then, I got hit up by a handful of cronies. "I smell Hoofy!" "They feel higher." "QQQ March 27 calls, we're buying 10,000!" "DIA, we're buying 10,000 calls!" You know what I did? I took a deep, long breath, cracked my knuckles and started to pen this column.
Why? Because, for a moment, I got caught up in the madness. There's so much energy flickering on my eight screens, it almost sucked me right in. I'm not saying that my friends are right or wrong--this isn't about that--I'm simply saying that emotional, reactive decisions typically have a way of hurting you. For me, writing it out helps me see it better.
With all that said, they do feel "OK" to me early and the natural question that follows is "what do we do now?" I'd answer that question with another question. How many abidigonals do YOU see modeling. Oops, wrong question. What's your time frame? If you're the day trading type, feel free to try anything (as long as you're disciplined) . If you're a longer term player, look past your screens and think ahead.
Looking AT my screens for a second, a couple of themes jump out. The banks and breadth continue to drag on the tape while most anything pharma or semiconductor continues to hold an early bid. The short term trendline I referenced this morning resides roughly at S&P 847ish and that's kinda what I'm eyeballing. Is that ten points playable on the upside? I'm not sure--maybe. For purposes of my style though, I'm gonna stick with the fur and use that level as my stop out.
I've gotta jump, Mon Frere...I'll be back.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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