Take the time to enjoy tonight--tomorrow is promised to nobody!
I was hanging a Louie to head out the door but wanted to first toss out a final missive to my fellow Minyans. I'm not sure how much incremental value I can muster at this point but, as always, I'll put it out there with hopes that it adds to your process.
OK--let's look at what we've got. The market staged an impressive rally from the intraday lows as chatter of a peaceful resolution made the rounds. There was also talk of asset allocation and, while I can't confirm that those frisky critters were there, it surely makes sense. Finally, as it stands, Hoofy managed to toe the line and put in a higher lower (for now).
That's the bull case.
Over in Red Dye Junction, they're discussing the "way" in which the market "bottomed" with a raised eyebrow. Higher prices are bullish, fer sure, but this type of low does nothing to resolve the grindy action that we've been seeing. The mad dash for exposure, as evidenced by the sizable "takes" in E.T.F land drip of one of two things: hope or covers (neither one of those is bullish). Further, we've still got layers upon layers of resistance in our midst.
Now--time for a little self-examination (no, not like that!). Did I drop the discipline ball? An honest Abe would prolly say "yep." It was coolio try the second appendage (we defined the preponderance of the risk and had well thought out process) but, in hindsight, I shoulda got naked and locked in a nice trade when my stop was triggered. With that said (honesty always feels good), there will be no looking back and just as we don't let ourselves get too high on the good days, we can't beat ourselves up when we aren't up to snuff. The more important question is: what now?
Today's action will surely reinforce the green seeds for the bull--but is that bullish? My main dilemma, as you know, is one of timing. I still "see" a stiff rally out there but I continue to feel that it has to begin from lower levels. Now, there IS a chance that this could evolve as October did (no capitulation) but, even then, the intermediate ducks were lined up.
I'm sure Europe will be emboldened by our close and that will, in turn, likely buoy stateside psychology in the morning. Still, I hop home with one leg in my fur and nothing in my belly--and I'm glad to be calling it a day. Pepe and the techies just walked in and they need to take over my systems--which is perfect because I need an excuse to go home. Have a fantastic night, my friends, and don't fret if you lost too much or didn't make enough--we'll get 'em tomorrow.
Have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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